NFL Divisional Round Weekend Bets:
We only have seven games left for the NFL season and four of them come during the Divisional Round this weekend. Well, maybe eight if you count the Pro Bowl! But, the season is truly winding down and we are mere weeks away from that long, drawn-out offseason.
Finding value in the spread and total markets can be tricky at this time of the year. We have 17 or 18 data points on these teams, not only on the field, but off the field as well in terms of bettor tendencies and other data that the sportsbooks have picked up on. Player props, touchdown markets, and other game props are all out there as well. That being said, there are a couple side/total plays I find worthwhile investments for this week.
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Divisional Round Weekend NFL Bets:
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5, 55.5)
8 p.m. ET
The highest total for Divisional Round action is at Ford Field between the Commanders and Lions. This game definitely has all the makings of a high-variance shootout. For the full season, these teams finished third and fourth in EPA/play, with Detroit just a little bit better than Washington. The Commanders had the better rushing attack and the Lions had the better passing attack, though Detroit is allegedly getting David Montgomery back this week. I actually think that could be a step back given how magnificent Jahmyr Gibbs has been in the last three games.
While the Lions had the better defense for the full season, they really faltered down the stretch. From Week 13 to Week 18, the Lions were 28th in EPA/play on defense and they’ve had trouble generating turnovers for a while now. Detroit only has five takeaways since their streak of 11 straight games with a turnover to start the season got snapped. They gave up passing yardages of 362, 323, and 400 from Week 15 to Week 17 before shutting down Sam Darnold in Week 18 and we all just saw what Darnold did against the Rams.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Lions were fourth in Pressure%, but tied for 23rd in sacks. They also had the second-highest Blitz% in the NFL. With the pressure not getting there, and a high rate of pass attempts against, the Lions surrendered the third-most air yards in the league. I think Washington can move it through the air, but also on the ground where the Lions were below the league average in yards per carry allowed.
I know Detroit will likely get their points and yards against Washington’s defense, but the Commanders can keep pace and that’s enough for me getting almost a TD + FG.
Pick: Commanders +9.5
Baltimore Ravens (-1, 51.5) at Buffalo Bills
6:30 p.m. ET
Week 4 was a long time ago. The Ravens crushed the Bills 35-10, as Derrick Henry had an 87-yard TD run and it seemingly went downhill from there for Buffalo. While that data point would appear to be a damning one for the Bills, I’m not on board with Baltimore being a road favorite in this one.
Let’s start with this – the Bills were missing Matt Milano, Taron Johnson, and AJ Epenesa in that first game. Milano actually missed most of the season, but he’s been back for five games now. The Ravens may not have needed to use Lamar Jackson much in that one, as he was 13-of-18 for 156 yards, but I think they’ll need to here. And, frankly, Jackson hasn’t been great lately, going under his season average in passing yards in four straight games and seven of the last eight.
He’s only thrown one interception, but he may be asked to do more in this game because the Bills are second in Rush EPA defense over the last seven games. Jackson’s playoff struggles are well-documented. He was solid enough against the Steelers, but that’s a Pittsburgh team that was trending in the wrong direction as opposed to a Bills team that is peaking on defense.
Including last week’s playoff action, Josh Allen leads Lamar in adjusted EPA/play and regular EPA/play. It is easier said than done for the Bills to play better against the Ravens rush attack, but I think that’s exactly what we see. If this game comes down to the quarterbacks, I’ll take Allen at home.
Pick: Bills +1
