NFL Week 10 Bets:

Four teams are on a bye here in Week 10, so that means we have 14 games to think about from a betting perspective. Early in the week (Tuesday), most games have a pretty clean bill of health from a weather standpoint, but you always want to keep an eye on the latest and what may change as the forecast gets a little clearer. It’s November, so make sure that’s part of your daily and weekly routine.

Otherwise, we’ve got all kinds of stats and data points with which to break this week’s action down. There are six road favorites on the board and a neutral-site game in Germany, so we’ll have to see if it’s going to be another awesome week for favorites.

 

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Here are my Week 10 NFL bets:

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11/5, 3:00 p.m. PT

New York Giants (-5.5, 41.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (Germany)

9:30 a.m. ET

The Giants and Panthers head across the pond to play in Munich. Many probably feel like the crowd will be treated to a bad version of North American football, but, I think we could get an exciting game and even see a few points.

Both defenses rank in the bottom 10 in yards per play. The Panthers are actually a top-10 offense in red zone efficiency, scoring a touchdown on 63.6% of their chances inside the 20. It hasn’t been pretty at times, but Bryce Young does have a 64% completion rate and has only taken three sacks in his last two games since slotting back into the lineup. He’s got a 3/3 TD/INT ratio and each of the last two games for the Panthers have gone Over the total.

The last two Giants games have gone up to 44 and 49 points. Daniel Jones has struggled his way through the first halves of games, but he’s been able to do some things in the second half. He’s completed 69% of his passes the last two weeks. In the end, the Giants have 5.9 yards per play and 5.5 yards per play over their last two games. But, they’ve also given up 6.8 and 6.0 yards per play.

The Panthers have the lowest Pressure% in the NFL at 11.3% per Pro-Football-Reference. Both teams are bottom five in Hurry%. That means these two QBs should have some time to throw and that could lead to some big plays.

Pick: Over 41.5

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (-6, 39)

1 p.m. ET

The Patriots and Bears meet on Sunday with a low-scoring expectation and some questions at the most important position on the field. Chicago just failed to score a touchdown against the Cardinals a week after they mustered just 15 points. However, as concerning as the recent data points have been, and as much as the skepticism about Matt Eberflus and Shane Waldron is warranted, these two teams are in very different places.

Over the last five weeks, the Patriots are 27th in EPA/play on offense and defense. The Bears offense has been right around the league average, but they’ve had a top-10 defense by EPA/play. When Chicago played teams closer to New England’s level, like the Panthers and Jaguars, they won in lopsided fashion.

The Bears offense has a lot of holes to be sure, but they also have only turned the ball over eight times. The Patriots only have eight takeaways and opponents have scored on over 42% of their possessions. Bears’ opponents have only scored one-third of the time and they have 15 takeaways. Drake Maye has had some issues with taking care of the football. I think this is a spot where the Bears can get right against some low-hanging fruit.

Pick: Bears -6

Buffalo Bills (-4, 46) at Indianapolis Colts

1 p.m. ET

Maybe the Bills are just a juggernaut. They’ve won four in a row and have scored at least 30 points in each of the last three games. But, at some point, I feel like a letdown is coming and this profiles as the week. Buffalo plays Kansas City next week. This is their fifth road game in seven weeks. They just outlasted Miami in a divisional game that probably locked up the division for them already.

The Colts are a decent team. Their 4-5 record doesn’t fully indicate it, but they’ve done a great job of scoring first and have played nothing but one-possession games this season. The one concern I have here is that they’ve struggled against the pass, coming in 18th in Dropback EPA. But, I think they’re a slightly better offense with Joe Flacco at the helm and don’t really have too many outlier stats to the positive or negative.

Given the circumstances and the fact that you can throw on the Bills defense a little bit as well, four points feels like a good value on the Colts.

Pick: Colts +4

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