NFL Week 11 Bets:

The NFL train keeps rolling on down the tracks with 14 games in Week 11. The Cardinals, Panthers, Giants, and Buccaneers are all on byes, so we’ll get all 16 AFC teams, but only 12 NFC teams on the schedule. The lines are all spread out, as we have a near two-touchdown favorite in the Lions and a couple TD+ favorites in the Dolphins and Texans, but the rest of the slate features some games on or around key numbers.

Once again this week, it appears that the NFL will dodge some bullets with weather. The deeper we go into the season, the more you want to think about it, but it seems as though Mother Nature is a football fan in most places for Week 11.

 

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Here are my Week 11 NFL bets:

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11/12, 4:00 p.m. PT

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (-1, 44.5)

1 p.m. ET

The Jameis Winston Bowl down in the Big Easy is a rather interesting game. Interim head coach Darren Rizzi promised that the Saints wouldn’t be boring and delivered on that promise with a spirited 20-17 win over the Falcons in a home underdog role. The Browns are coming off of a bye and I would normally like Kevin Stefanski in that setting, but Cleveland is in a weird spot right now.

Questions linger as to whether or not the coaches’ jobs are on the line, even though they were set up to fail with the Deshaun Watson contract. Cleveland should be healthier this week after the bye, but that’s one of the few positive things that I can say. They are dead last in the NFL in yards per play and it was very ugly for Winston two weeks ago. The defense has decent numbers in terms of yardage, but also has only five takeaways.

The Saints have allowed the most yards after catch in the NFL, but the Browns have the second-fewest YAC in the league. In two games with Winston at the helm, the Browns have 114 YAC. They’ve allowed more than 250, as the secondary has had some major breakdowns. Over the last two weeks, Winston is 31st out of 34 QB with at least 25 plays in EPA + CPOE Composite (Expected Points Added + Completion Percentage Over Expectation), leading Trevor Lawrence, CJ Stroud, and Cooper Rush.

I don’t think that the Browns will be excited to get back to work, whereas the vibes are a bit better in NOLA.

Pick: Saints -1

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-4, 44)

1 p.m. ET

The Colts and Jets were flexed out of Sunday Night Football to play early in the Meadowlands. Indy let me down last week, as stepping in front of the Bills proved to be a poor decision, but I’ll be back on them here again this week. Obviously Shane Steichen’s team has some issues, as Joe Flacco threw three interceptions, including a pick-six, but I think those issues are smaller than what the Jets are dealing with.

The market loved the Jets last week against the Cardinals and that proved to be a wrong decision, as Arizona won 31-6. This is a Jets team that ranks dead last in EPA/play on defense over the last five weeks. Coincidentally, Robert Saleh was fired prior to Week 6 and I’m looking at Weeks 6-10 on rbsdm.com.

In that span, the Colts are actually a top-10 unit by EPA/play on defense. The offense clearly has its problems, but the Jets defense has been so bad that I feel like Flacco and the Colts, who did run for over 110 yards on the Bills last week, will be able to move the chains and stay on schedule. 

Edit: After posting on Tuesday, Shane Steichen announced that Anthony Richardson will be in at QB for the Colts.

Pick: Colts +4

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 46)

4:05 p.m. ET

It has been a little while since I felt like the price was right to back the Falcons, but we’ve found it. Atlanta hits the road for the Mile High City in a flipped favorite situation, as they’ve gone from -2.5 in some lookahead markets to +2.5. I don’t know that we’ll get to the full 3 here, but I’m not sure we need it, as the better team is the underdog here.

The Falcons are sixth in EPA/play over the last five weeks and are only four spots behind Denver in that span on defense per rbsdm. Denver’s near-miss against Kansas City coupled with Atlanta’s loss to New Orleans helped create a line move that I don’t necessarily agree with. Younghoe Koo missed three field goals in a game where Atlanta had 6.4 yards per play and ran 21 more offensive plays. 

The Broncos certainly played well enough to win against KC, but we know that the Chiefs have let teams hang around all season long. KC was also just 1-for-4 in the red zone, but had more scoring chances than Denver did. The Falcons are a borderline top-five offense in yards per play. On the whole, Denver has played a fairly weak slate of opposing offenses.

The Broncos have also struggled more against the run recently than the pass and that should help the Falcons cut down the impact of Denver’s pass rush.

Pick: Falcons +2.5

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