NFL Week 12 Bets:

Six teams will take Week 12 off because of byes and other teams may take Week 12 off for other reasons, as we stare down a new set of NFL games. There are a lot of road favorites this week in the NFL and a lot of teams that are in rather large favorite roles, as the midpoint of the season is well in the past and we know who is good and who isn’t. At least for the most part.

Quarterback changes, coaching changes, front office changes, injuries, weather, all of that gets thrown into the hopper of the handicapping process and we come up with our favorite plays based on those factors and a whole lot more. Here are mine for Week 12.

 

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Week 12 NFL bets:

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11/19, 5:45 p.m. PT

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 39.5) at Chicago Bears

1 p.m. ET

NFC North rivals will exchange pleasantries at Soldier Field in this one, as the Bears and Vikings play twice in the next four weeks, with the second installment on Monday Night Football on December 16.

The Bears looked much better on offense under interim OC Thomas Brown, who got Caleb Williams on the move more often. Williams had 70 yards on just nine carries and threw for 231 yards without a turnover. He also didn’t have a touchdown pass, but led the offense in a more effective way than he had previously under Shane Waldron. The Bears had 5.8 yards per play against the Packers in a game that should have gotten into the low 40s, but the game-winning field goal was blocked.

But, Chicago’s defense was quite bad. They gave up a 60-yard explosive to Christian Watson and 8.5 yards per play. What kept this game under the total was the super slow tempo, as the teams combined to only run 111 plays, with just 43 from the Packers.

I don’t think we’ll see a similar tempo with the Vikings. Minnesota does have the fifth-most seconds per snap at 28.3, but they’ve also spent a ton of time leading this season, which has allowed them to slow down in the second half. Chicago is second in No-Huddle% per FTN, so they should be able to push the pace a bit more and it makes sense to do that against the blitz-happy Vikings defense.

The weather doesn’t seem to be an extreme factor (keep in mind, this article went up on Tuesday) and I think you’ve got some big-play potential on both sides here with a better-looking Bears offense and some dynamic skill guys for Minnesota.

Pick: Over 39.5

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-7, 46)

1 p.m. ET

The Dolphins should have a renewed sense of purpose right now. The AFC playoff bubble is rather weak right now and Miami has the chance to improve to 5-6 with a very realistic chance at going 9-8 or 10-7 when all is said and done to be in contention for a spot. There are still two games left with the floundering Jets, a visit to Cleveland, who may be in even fuller tank mode at that point, and this game against the Patriots.

Miami went on the road and beat New England earlier this season in a battle between Tyler Huntley and Jacoby Brissett. This week’s game will be Tua Tagovailoa and Drake Maye. Maye has shown a lot of positive signs in his rookie season, but he has been sacked 17 times and has still been kept in check with barely over 200 yards per game in his six starts.

The Dolphins are 13th in EPA/play on defense, but the Patriots are all the way down at 28th. Not only that, but New England is 29th in Dropback EPA. Jerod Mayo may have been a great defensive player and defensive coordinator, but things are falling through the cracks on that side of the ball. 

Since Tua’s return in Week 8, the Dolphins are third in EPA/play and lead the NFL in Dropback EPA. In that same span, New England is 19th in Dropback EPA and has not found much success on the ground. This should be a spot where Miami gets the blowout win and keeps the vibe train moving.

Pick: Dolphins -7

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (PK, 47.5)

4:25 p.m. ET

In Drew Petzing and Jonathan Gannon I trust. The Cardinals come off of their bye week to face the Seahawks, who came off of theirs and beat the 49ers last week. It was a great defensive performance from Seattle to hold San Fran to just 4.9 yards per play, coincidentally, the same output that they had themselves on offense.

Arizona hit the bye week with four wins in a row and they’ve been a very good team at setting the tone in the first quarter. I’ve been tracking first touchdown scorers this season and the Cardinals have scored first in 7/10 games and have actually scored on their first offensive possession in 6/10. 

With extra prep off the bye, I fully expect Arizona to come out strong early in the game and to be the fresher team. Over the last five weeks, which includes a bye for each team here, the Cardinals are second in EPA/play on offense and the Seahawks are 23rd. The Cardinals also have the better defense in that span.

The weather looks to be a factor and maybe that’ll trip up the Cardinals, who play their home games indoors, but both teams deal with the weather and I think the Cardinals are the better team with the situational advantages.

Pick: Cardinals PK

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