NFL Week 13 Bets:

The deeper we get into the season, the more that weather becomes a factor. A lot of people said a lot of things about the cold weather on Thursday night for the Dolphins and Packers. We’ve got snow and cold expected in Buffalo for the 49ers. We had the snow globe game last week between Pittsburgh and Cleveland. It’s that time of year and you want to keep an eye on it.

Weather isn’t the only consideration, as injuries keep mounting and teams keep showing their tendencies. We’ve got a lot of sample size now, but there are still a lot of inconsistent teams week to week and that’s something that we’ll just have to deal with the rest of the way.

 

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Week 13 NFL bets:

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11/26, 11:45 a.m. PT

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 45)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Cardinals play an early game here against the Vikings, so that’s part of the intrigue with Minnesota. What I also like is that Brian Flores is going to send a ton of pressure at Kyler Murray and the Cardinals had absolutely no running game last week coming out of the bye. Arizona had 14 carries for 49 yards in a game that was close throughout, so it’s not like the game state led to having to throw the football a ton.

TE Trey McBride had 12 of Arizona’s 24 catches. WR Marvin Harrison Jr. hasn’t been getting the same separation that he got in college. Now he’ll have even less time to try with the blitz-happy Flores defense.

I would also expect Sam Darnold and his weapons to have a strong game against the Cardinals defense. The Cardinals defense grades below average across the board in a lot of areas. They’re 21st in EPA/play, 21st in Dropback EPA, and 24th in Rush EPA on that side of the ball. They are the second-worst third-down defense in the NFL, but have fared very well in the red zone. But, Minnesota has the skill guys to capitalize on extending drives and when they get into the scoring areas.

Pick: Vikings -3.5

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 42.5) at New England Patriots

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Colts head outside to Foxboro to battle the Patriots. The weather doesn’t look like a big factor, as it’ll just be cold, but sunny. Still, it is a big ask for Anthony Richardson, who has rarely seen his cold weather in his career as a QB.

Indy looked great against the Jets and put up 28 points, but that is also a Jets defense that has been in freefall mode ever since Robert Saleh was fired. New England’s defense has been subpar throughout the season, but the Colts don’t provide a whole lot of wrinkles and I do think that the cold will negatively impact the offensive gameplan from Shane Steichen and the staff.

The Patriots can’t protect Drake Maye. Maye has done as much as he can with what he has had, but he doesn’t have much. The skill guys are weak, the offensive line is among the worst in the NFL. This is set up for the defenses to win the day.

New England has been susceptible to the pass, but the Colts have a poor passing offense. I think this is an ugly slog of a game lacking explosive plays.

Pick: Under 42.5

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-5.5, 42)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

The Browns and Broncos have the Monday Night Football spotlight this week. Cleveland looked like a team that had quit in the second half against New Orleans, only to step up a few days later and beat the Steelers. A win over Pittsburgh always matters and Cleveland played like it. The weather probably helped as well, since it kept Russell Wilson from taking the downfield shots that he likes to take.

It was the type of game and the type of weather that allowed Cleveland to not be exposed with the absence of Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. Given how the Broncos run their offense and the throws that Bo Nix has prioritized, the loss of JOK is a much bigger deal in a matchup like this since weather is not in the forecast.

The Broncos are third in EPA/play allowed on defense and should be able to mostly neutralize a Jekyll and Hyde Cleveland offense that has major issues with ball security.

Pick: Broncos -5.5

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