NFL Week 18 Bets:

We’ve made it to the end of the NFL regular season. What a ride it has been, as underdogs barked a ton early and nearly all of them have been muzzled late. Now we head into Week 18, where there are a few games that matter a ton, a few games that don’t matter at all, and a few games somewhere in between.

This is the kind of week where half betting and live betting make a ton of sense, as players are sure to hear about what teams are doing at some point throughout the game and coaches may make personnel decisions accordingly. It is not the easiest week for betting the NFL, but that doesn’t mean that there are no opportunities to try and find an edge.

 

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Week 18 NFL bets:

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-17.5, 42)

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

The Browns and Ravens square off in the first game of Week 18. The weather looks not optimal in Baltimore, as the Ravens need to simply win to lock up the AFC North. Wind gusts are forecasted this far out to be in the 20 mph range with the potential for some precipitation. This article is written on Tuesday, so the forecast isn’t exactly locked down, but it doesn’t look like a terribly fun day for football.

No days are fun for football for the Browns right now. I’d expect the defense to play hard, but the offense is a mess with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at the helm. Kevin Stefanski said on Tuesday that Bailey Zappe may get some run as well, so that may help, but still. Over the last two weeks, DTR’s Adjusted EPA/play is -0.344. Spencer Rattler is at -0.313. Next is Aaron Rodgers at -0.177. Thompson only has a 5.7 average depth of target, which is 29th out of 35 QB to play.

There is a very real possibility that Lamar Jackson doesn’t play this whole game, leaving Josh Johnson out there to hand the ball off and maybe throw a few chain-movers. I don’t see a whole lot of points here on a miserable day with one team halfway to Cancun and the other in “win and get out” mode.

Pick: Under 42

Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 38) at New England Patriots

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Bills turn to Mitchell Trubisky for this week’s game that doesn’t mean anything for the standings. Buffalo will be the No. 2 seed in the AFC, but they don’t know who the opponent will be just yet. A lot of guys that don’t play much will get an opportunity this week and that’s important on a good team with 16 impending free agents. Some of the backups like Ty Johnson and Mack Hollins certainly have the incentive to play well.

The Patriots will be vying for a win to end their six-game losing streak before the end of the season, but New England is also shorthanded thanks to injury. Banged-up guys are unlikely to play and New England is very thin in the secondary now. Jabrill Peppers may not play and Christian Gonzalez suffered a concussion last week. Marcus Jones was placed on IR. This is a defense struggling to stop just about anybody, as they’ve allowed 30.2 points per game during this skid.

All reps are important for Drake Maye, who has had very little help from the offensive line this season. Maye had his worst game of the season last time out against the Chargers with just 117 passing yards and four more sacks. Over the six-game skid, he has taken 19 sacks with an 8/5 TD/INT ratio.

Good organizations get to be good because of the stars, but the depth for the Bills is really not that far off from the first-stringers for the Patriots. Trubisky is at least something of a known commodity. I think the extra juice on -2.5 is worth the squeeze here, as the Bills may not have something to play for, but the backups do.

Pick: Bills -2.5

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-8.5, 48)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Panthers and Falcons meet in a game that could mean something, but potentially not. The  Buccaneers are a two-touchdown favorite against the Saints and the Falcons need a lot of help. But, these are still very important reps for Michael Penix Jr., so even if the playoff scenario isn’t playing out, I would still expect the offense to do what it does. The defensive effort may fall down a bit if Tampa Bay is up big early.

These two QBs are top five in average depth of target the last two weeks. The Panthers look so much more interesting under Bryce Young here in the latter portion of the season as Dave Canales is working some magic in Charlotte. The Falcons have a much stronger arm in Penix playing the most important position on the field.

I think we could see some explosives here for sure. Atlanta’s defense has played at a very high level the last five weeks and for a good portion of the season, but I am banking on the Bucs being ahead and the Falcons finding out about it. Carolina’s defense has been atrocious, ranking dead last in EPA/play since Week 12. I don’t think that changes regardless of game state.

I’m expecting points in this one.

Pick: Over 48

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