NFL Week 5 Picks:

The Year of the Underdog absolutely continued in Week 4, as pups went 10-5-1 ATS and we saw another big outright upset with the Broncos over the Jets. Perhaps this week will be the time for things to start evening out, as we don’t have many big favorites on the board.

A lot of games are lined around -3 or lower, with only three games featuring favorites of over four points. So, we’ll see, but it’s been a dog eat favorite world to this point.

 

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Here are my Week 5 NFL best bets:

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10/1, 7:20 p.m. PT

New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 40.5)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network)

Our first London game of the season features the Jets and Vikings. I don’t think it will feature a lot of points. The Vikings enter this week tops in the NFL in Dropback EPA and EPA/play against. The Jets are eighth in EPA/play against and fifth in Dropback EPA. New York is actually second in Dropback Success Rate against, meaning that most plays against them fail to gain the proper yardage by down and distance.

The Vikings are sixth in Dropback Success Rate on defense, so these are two really good units against the pass thus far. Minnesota has also been a top-five unit against the run by EPA. The Jets have been less successful at stopping the run per the advanced metrics. Minnesota has found success on the ground, but more success through the air.

This total has already moved down a couple of points, but I don’t think it’s gone down far enough. Also, rain is in the forecast at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The stadium’s design does limit the wind’s impact for the most part, so that shouldn’t be too much of a factor, but I think the defenses rule the day in the UK.

Pick: Jets/Vikings Under 40.5

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 46.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Maybe this is the week that Jacksonville figures it out. On the other hand, maybe it isn’t. Both of these teams are really injured, but the Jaguars defense has borne the brunt of the injury bug, while the offense has been pretty healthy for the most part. And yet, this unit ranks 24th in EPA/play. They’ve only scored on 27.9% of their offensive possessions. They are one of 12 teams under five yards per play.

This offense stinks. And it probably shouldn’t given the personnel and a longtime offensive coach like Doug Pederson. I can’t just see this team figuring it all out.

Indianapolis is a flawed team as well, but they’ve racked up over six yards per play. Whether it’s Anthony Richardson, who looked terrific before leaving injured against the Steelers, or ageless Joe Flacco, the Colts will move the ball against Jacksonville’s depleted secondary. The Jaguars rank 29th in EPA/play allowed and have been abhorrent against the pass.

I just don’t really envision many scenarios where the Jags clean up all of their messes against a Colts team that seems to be improving little by little.

Pick: Colts +3

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-1, 35.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

There is a ton of doom and gloom around the Dolphins organization right now. Things have not looked good at all with Tua Tagovailoa hurt. And they didn’t look great against the Bills before he suffered the concussion. But, the Dolphins get a bit of a respite this week by playing the Patriots.

I realize that defensive stats are a byproduct of opponent, so the Dolphins have definitely contributed to these numbers. But, the Dolphins have played the Seahawks and Titans the last two weeks, who rank ninth and seventh in Defensive EPA/play. The Patriots rank 25th. As Tyler Huntley spends more time on the roster, the Dolphins should be able to make adjustments and figure out what works best for the offense.

I think it will be the pass here, as the Patriots rank 27th in Dropback Success Rate and 26th in Dropback EPA against. It should also be a break for the Dolphins defense in some respects, as the Patriots are a bottom-five unit with the football. The Titans aren’t any good either, but that was a pretty misleading 31 points on Monday with scoring drives of 21, 19, 27, 70, 11, 27, and 10.

Miami still has a ton of talent on the roster and enough reasons to believe that they can get it right, at least for one week, especially against a defense that ranks 29th in Pressure% per Pro-Football-Reference.

Pick: Dolphins +1

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