NFL Week 8 Bets:

Even though it is the middle of the season, all 32 teams are in action here in Week 8. There are no bye weeks, so that means we have the full slate of action and we go back to just one Monday Night Football game. There are some pretty significant injuries to think about as the week goes along and factor into your handicapping, as we’re at the point where everybody is dealing with something. Some guys are dealing with more severe problems than others.

The stats, the injury reports, the weather, all of it gets thrown together to analyze the games and see which ones stand out as the best wagering opportunities.

 

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Here are my Week 8 NFL bets:

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10/22, 7:00 a.m. PT

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-6, 46)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Just as we all expected, the Colts offense has a higher EPA/play than the Texans offense at this stage of the season. After going all-in to acquire Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs, Houston’s offense has actually been a bit underwhelming to this point and ranks 19th in EPA/play. They had 55 net passing yards against the Packers in last week’s 24-22 loss. I guess you could point to that being a positive, as they were a last-second field goal away from winning in spite of the disastrous passing effort.

But, I’m looking at this team as a pretty pedestrian offense thus far. CJ Stroud is more than halfway to last year’s sack total, as the offensive line hasn’t played terribly well and he’s been pressured on about 4% more of his dropbacks with 0.4 fewer seconds to throw per Pro-Football-Reference. Nico Collins is still on IR for a little while longer and he’s certainly been missed.

Maybe Stroud can get back on track in his second game against the Colts, but the Texans had 5.5 yards per play and Stroud was sacked four times in the opener in Indy.

Anthony Richardson has completed under 49% of his passes this season and looked really rusty against the Dolphins last week with a stat line that read 10-of-24 for 129 yards with no TD and no INT. He had 14 carries for 56 yards, a season-high in attempts. The Colts are dealing with a litany of skill-position injuries heading into this one, much like they did last week.

I’m looking for a low-scoring affair here, as the Colts struggle to move the ball and the Texans simply look average.

Pick: Under 46

New York Jets (-7, 41.5) at New England Patriots

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

It turns out that Robert Saleh and Nathaniel Hackett weren’t really the problem. The Jets got blown out by Russell Wilson and the Steelers on Sunday night, as Breece Hall led the team with 103 receiving yards. Sure, Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers should get back on track quickly given all their history, but this just isn’t a good Jets team and Rodgers isn’t the same QB he once was.

By EPA + CPOE Composite (Expected Points Added + Completion Percentage Over Expected), Rodgers ranks 22nd out of 32 QBs with a minimum of 112 plays run per rbsdm. The list of QBs he’s been better than? Levis, Jones, Prescott, Stafford, Dalton, Minshew, Watson, Brisset, Nix, and Richardson. You mean to tell me that guy is gonna take his offense on the road and cover against a plucky Patriots defense?

By the way, the vaunted Jets defense has been mid, too. They are 14th in EPA/play on defense and are flirting with bottom-five status against the run. The Patriots pass defense grades very poorly, so if Rodgers can’t get it together this week, he may not get it together at all, but it’s also worth noting that the Pats have faced Burrow, Smith, Rodgers (did have his best game of the season here), Purdy, and Stroud.

The game in London got away from the Pats on special teams with a huge punt return TD, but they led 10-0 against a Jags team spending a second week under Big Ben’s shadow. Drake Maye actually played pretty well. The Jets have no excuse not to win, but I don’t see a blowout here.

Pick: Patriots +7

Buffalo Bills (-3, 47) at Seattle Seahawks

4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Bills head up to Seattle for a long road trip, but they’re playing some great football right now. The Seahawks have adopted the Forrest Gump approach of never knowing what you’re going to get, so I’m looking at the more consistent team.

With a random collection of wide receivers most of the season, the Bills are third in EPA/play and Josh Allen is third in EPA+CPOE Composite. He’s been magnificent this season and no team has taken better care of the football than the Bills, who only have two turnovers and Allen has zero interceptions. Oh, and now he has Amari Cooper, who doesn’t know the playbook yet, but is already healthier and scoring tuds.

Statistically, the teams have basically the same yards per play, but the Seahawks have run 236 plays while trailing, accounting for 158 of their 280 pass attempts. The Bills have only run 165 plays while trailing, accounting for 79 of 192 pass attempts.

Also, for having a defensive genius for a head coach in Mike Macdonald, the Seahawks defense has underwhelmed, coming in 16th in EPA/play and 20th in yards per play allowed.

Buffalo’s only losses this season are to Lamar Jackson and CJ Stroud. Geno Smith is not that and the Seahawks are unlikely to benefit from turnovers.

Pick: Bills -3

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