NFL Week 9 Bets:

Week 9 of the NFL season. The midpoint. It has been quite the season thus far, with a lot of noteworthy upsets and some surprising teams at or near the top of their respective divisions. That being said, I think it’s totally fair to wonder what’s sustainable and what isn’t as we push towards the second half of the season.

Injuries keep mounting, forcing teams to adjust on the fly. That means depth is being tested week in and week out and betting opportunities may arise from those situations. Plus, weather should be more of a factor moving forward now that we’re into November. The hope is to take all of that information, mix in a little opinion, and find some NFL picks that stand out.

 

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Here are my Week 9 NFL bets:

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10/29, 6:00 p.m. PT

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, 46.5)

1 p.m. ET

The Raiders make the trek out to Ohio to take on the Bengals this week. Cincinnati has squandered a mostly good season from Joe Burrow, but it is worth examining how the Bengals offense has fallen off here of late. Sure, they’ve played better defenses in the Giants, Browns, and Eagles than they’ll get here, but they’ve scored 55 points over the last three weeks. Burrow is 60-of-90 for just 623 yards over the last three weeks with a 3/1 TD/INT ratio.

Burrow has been sacked eight times over those three games. He had a 12/2 TD/INT ratio in his first five starts of the season. HC Zac Taylor might be on his way out and DC Lou Anarumo could very well be also. It is a team that could be in a major state of transition and already hasn’t been playing well. Injuries are also playing a role, as Tee Higgins is questionable and the defense lost Dax Hill a couple weeks ago. It feels like last week’s blowout loss at the hands of the Eagles was a sign of things to come.

The Raiders aren’t the most talented team and Antonio Pierce is certainly not winning Coach of the Year, but they can keep games close if they take care of the football. Gardner Minshew is a veteran who should be better capable of doing that as the year goes along. The team is -13 in TO margin and at some point they should protect the ball better and force a few more takeaways.

Quite simply, I don’t feel like the Bengals, with their bad defense and slumping offense, are a good bet to run away and hide here. The Raiders are still playing hard with each passing week and I think the offense could look a lot better this week against a Cincy defense that ranks 31st in Rush EPA and 32nd in Rush Success Rate.

Pick: Raiders +7.5

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-9, 45.5)

1 p.m. ET

The Ravens are likely to be really shorthanded on defense this week, or compromised at the very least. They lost to the Browns last weekend without Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins and then lost Michael Pierce and Brent Urban to injuries. Even if some of those guys are able to get back in the lineup this week, they’re unlikely to be playing at 100%.

The Broncos are a work in progress offensively, but Bo Nix is actually playing quite well with an 8/1 TD/INT ratio over his last five games. In that span, the Broncos are also second in the league in Rushing Success Rate at 50.5%. If the Ravens are thin on the interior, that could prove to be rather big.

Baltimore’s offense has been humming along, but the Broncos are a good defensive test. They rank third in EPA/play for the season and second in Dropback EPA. They are a pretty average run defense, which may help Derrick Henry have a big game, but limited explosives from the passing game make it really tough for teams to cover numbers like this in the NFL.

Pick: Broncos +9

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5, 45.5)

4:05 p.m. ET

The Jaguars and Eagles battle it out in a game that could decide Doug Pederson’s fate, which is kind of ironic. Maybe Jacksonville is waiting until their bye in late November, but dropping to 2-7 would just further the disappointment of how this season is going.

I do think we get a good effort from the Jags, who have finally strung together a couple of good games in a row. They beat the Patriots in London and then played very tight with the Packers. Obviously they lost to Malik Willis and that is the takeaway for most people, but the Jaguars had seven yards per play against the Green Bay defense.

The Eagles are coming off of a really big victory over the Bengals in which they finally looked like the team that we all expected, but I’m not really expecting that to be the norm. The Eagles only have four takeaways this season, which makes it difficult to blow a team out. Also, while Pederson is far removed from the equation in Philly, his influence is not, as Nick Sirianni was the OC of the Colts while Frank Reich was the head coach and Reich was the OC under Pederson.

If nothing else, the familiarity should give the Jaguars defense some hope, along with the fact that they may be getting a little healthier in the secondary.

Pick: Jaguars +7.5

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