Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Monday Night Football: Broncos-Bills

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

 

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You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages using our VSiN Betting Splits.

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday Night Football.

 

8:15 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-7, 47.5)

The Broncos (3-5) have won two straight games and just upset the Chiefs 24-9, winning outright as 7-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Bills (5-4) have rotated wins and losses over their last six games and just fell to the Bengals 24-18, failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Buffalo listed as high as a 9-point home favorite. The public expects a blowout win and cover for the Bills at home. However, despite 75% of bets laying the points with Buffalo, we’ve seen the Bills fall from -9 to -7. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Broncos, with pros grabbing the points with the road dog. Denver is receiving 25% of bets but 34% of money, a contrarian "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy. 

Denver has a notable rest advantage as the Broncos are coming off a bye while the Bills played on Sunday night. Primetime dogs are 103-80 ATS (56%) since 2020. Russell Wilson is 33-17 ATS (66%) in his career as a dog, including 7-4 ATS (64%) as a dog with the Broncos. The Bills are 3-6 ATS on the season and 0-5 ATS in their last five games. 

The total has ticked up slightly from 46.5 to 47.5. However, 79% of bets and 79% of money is taking the under. It’s hard to go against the red-hot under systems this season, especially since you are now getting 1-point of inflated line value off the opener. Unders are 88-60 (60%) this season. When the total is 47 or high (high totals), the under is 16-9 (64%). Primetime unders are 24-7 (77%). The under is 15-10 (60%) since Wilson joined the Broncos.

Denver is the slowest team in the NFL in terms of pace of play, ranking 32nd with 57 plays run per game. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (60%) and road teams (57% ATS). The forecast calls for mid 40s, cloudy skies and 8-10 MPH winds. 

One player prop to consider: Broncos RB Javonte Williams under 16.5 receiving yards. The under is juiced up to -125, signaling under liability. He’s gone under this number is 6 of 7 games this season.