Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
***Top NFL Resources***
*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*
You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday Night Football.
8:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 39.5) at New York Jets
The Chargers (3-4) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 30-13 win over the Bears, covering as 10-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Jets (4-3) have won three straight games and just beat the Giants 13-10 in overtime, pushing as 3-point road road favorites.
This line opened with the Chargers listed as low as a 1.5-point road favorite. Early money laid the points with Los Angeles, steaming the Chargers all the way up from -1.5 to -3.5. But now that the hook has become available, we’re seeing respected buyback on Jets +3.5, as several shops are juicing up Jets +3.5 to -115, signaling a possible fall back down to the key number of 3. The public is split down the middle with 50% of bets on both sides. However, the Jets are receiving 60% of money, further evidence of smart money leaning toward grabbing the points with the home dog.
The Jets match several betting systems. Primetime dogs are 102-79 ATS (56%) since 2020. Conference dogs +6 or less are 305-227 ATS (57%) since 2019. Justin Herbert is just 11-14 ATS (44%) as a favorite of 3-points or more. Zach Wilson is 6-5 ATS (55%) as a home dog. The Jets will lean on their defensive advantage, allowing 18 PPG compared to 24 PPG given up by the Chargers.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 43 to 39.5. Currently 48% of bets and 50% of money is sweating the under. Unders are 82-52 (61%) this season. When the total falls at least a half point, the under is 55-32 (63%) this season. Primetime unders are 19-7 (73%). When the total is less than 40 (low total), the under is 14-9 (61%). Weather shouldn’t be an issue tonight, as the forecast calls for high 40s, cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds.
If you’re looking to sweat a prop bet, Zach Wilson over 213.5 passing yards (-115) might be worth a look. The Chargers are the worst passing defense in the NFL, allowing 297 yards per game. Wilson has averaged 218 passing yards over his last four games. Here is what the Chargers have given up in terms of passing yards per game: 232 to Bagent, 424 to Mahomes, 272 to Prescott, 238 to O’Connell, 367 to Cousins, 246 to Tannehill and 466 to Tua.
