Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday Night Football…
8:15 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys (-1.5, 51) at Los Angeles Chargers
The Cowboys (3-2) have lost two of their last three games and just got crushed by the 49ers 42-10, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Chargers (2-2) have won two straight and just took down the Raiders 24-17, covering as 6.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with the Cowboys listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is leaning toward Dallas laying the short spread under a field goal. However, despite receiving 57% of bets we’ve seen the Cowboys fall from -2.5 to -1.5. This signals smart money grabbing the points with the Chargers, triggering sharp line movement in favor of the home dog.
The Chargers have contrarian value, receiving only 43% of bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Primetime dogs are 99-73 ATS (58%) since 2020. Los Angeles enjoys a "rest vs tired" advantage as well, as the Chargers are coming off a bye while the Cowboys played on Sunday night. Los Angeles is also in a prime teaser spot (+1.5 to +7.5), which passes through the key numbers of 3 and 7. Los Angeles also has value as a "dog who can score," thereby keeping pace of opening the opportunity for a backdoor cover. The Chargers are the 5th highest scoring team in the NFL (28 PPG) and are averaging 409 yards of offense per game compared to 342 for the Cowboys.
The Chargers will welcome the return of star RB Austin Ekeler, who was removed from the injury report and is set to play after missing the last three games with an ankle. Chargers QB Justin Herbert is 13-6 ATS (68%) in his career as a dog.
Pros hammered the over earlier in the week, raising the total from 47.5 to 51. Now that it has moved so much, a lot of the value is gone. In fact, we are starting to see some buy-low value on the inflated under at this point. The under is receiving 48% of bets and 60% of money, a sharp bet split. Unders are 55-36 (60%) this season. Non-conference unders are 17-8 (68%). Primetime unders are 11-6 (65%).
