Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Monday Night Football Saints-Panthers, Browns-Steelers


Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 


Top NFL Resources:

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s Monday Night Football doubleheader…


7:15 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints (-3, 39.5) at Carolina Panthers

The Saints (1-0) edged the Titans 16-15 in Week 1 but failed to cover as 3-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Panthers (0-1) fell to the Falcons 24-10, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with New Orleans listed as a low as a 1.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover with the Saints and currently 81% of bets are laying the points with New Orleans. This lopsided action has driven the Saints up from -1.5 to -3. It briefly touched Saints -3.5 and then sharp buyback grabbed the Panthers plus the hook, dropping the line back down to Saints -3 where it rests now. 

Carolina offers buy-low contrarian value as an inflated dog receiving only 19% of bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Dogs are 18-12 ATS (60%) so far this season. Divisional dogs are 8-4 ATS this season and 170-128 ATS (57%) since 2020. Conference dogs +6 or less are 13-7 ATS this season and 289-202 ATS (59%) since 2019. 

Sharps have also hit the under, steaming the total down from 42.5 to 39.5. This movement is notable because 56% of bets are taking the over, yet the total fall. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the under. Divisional unders are 7-5 this season and 63-44 (59%) since 2022. Outdoor divisional unders are 6-2 this season and 84-53 (61%) since 2021. Primetime unders are 4-1 this season and 126-81 (61%) since 2019. 


8:15 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns (-2, 38) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Browns (1-0) upset the Bengals 24-3 in their season opener, winning outright as 1-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Steelers (0-1) got rolled by the 49ers 30-7, failing to cover as 1.5-point home dogs. The early lookahead line on this game was Steelers -1 at home. It quickly flipped to Browns -3 on the road behind a heavy wave of Pro and Joe support. Currently 76% of bets and 79% of money are laying the points with Cleveland. However, once it reached Browns -3, we saw heavy buyback on the Steelers plus the points, dropping the line down to Browns -2 where it rests now. Essentially, late action is breaking toward the Steelers, who have fallen +2.5 to +2 over the past 24-hours. 

The Steelers offer excellent "bet against the public" value, receiving only 24% of bets. Pittsburgh also matches several betting systems. The Steelers are a buy-low dog off a blowout loss versus a sell-high team off an upset win. Teams off a blowout loss of 20-points or more are 92-56 ATS (62%) since 2018. Primetime dogs are 94-66 ATS (59%) since 2020. Divisional dogs are 170-128 ATS (57%) since 2020. Mike Tomlin is 51-28 ATS (65%) as a dog, including 15-5 ATS (75%) as a home dog. Pittsburgh also offers teaser value (+2 to +8), which passes through multiple key numbers. 

Pros have also gotten down on the under, dropping the total from 43.5 to 38. The under is receiving 45% of bets but 57% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. Primetime unders are 126-81 (61%) since 2019. This also qualifies as an outdoor divisional under system match (61% since 2021).