Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Saturday December 16

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, live from the DraftKings studio in Boston.

You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Saturday’s NFL Week 15 slate.

 

1 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 40.5)

The Vikings (7-6) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 3-0 win over the Raiders, pushing as 3-point road favorites. On the flip side, the Bengals (7-6) have won two straight and just crushed the Colts 34-14, covering as 3-point home favorites. This line opened at roughly a pick’em. It quickly shot up to Bengals -5.5 at home. The public sees an easy win and cover for Cincinnati. However, despite receiving 78% of bets we’ve seen the Bengals fall from -5.5 to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the road dog Vikings. Short road dogs +3 or less are 121-98 ATS (55%) since 2019. Saturday road teams are 40-23 ATS (64%) since 2011. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, is 58% ATS to the road team historically. The total hasn’t budged off the opener of 40.5. This lack of movement is notable as 60% of bets are taking the over, signaling a bit of an under line freeze. Non-conference unders are 42-25 (63%) this season. If both teams made the playoffs the previous season, as is the case here, the under is 27-14 (66%). Vinovich is 61% to the under historically. The Vikings are 10-3 to the under this season. 

 

4:30 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 42.5)

The Steelers (7-6) have dropped three of their last four games and just fell to the Patriots 21-18, losing outright as 6-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Colts (7-6) just saw their four-game winning streak come to an end, falling to the Bengals 34-14 and failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with the Colts listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is fading the reeling Steelers. However, despite 74% of bets laying the points with the Colts, we’ve seen Indianapolis fall from -3 to -1.5. Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover with Indianapolis? Because pros have scooped up Pittsburgh plus the points, triggering sharp movement in their favor. The Steelers are only receiving 26% of bets but 50% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split. Mike Tomlin is 4-3 ATS this season as a dog and 55-30 ATS (65%) as a dog in his career. Saturday road teams are 40-23 ATS (63%) since 2011. The Steelers also enjoy a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Colts played on Sunday. Pittsburgh is in a prime teaser spot (+1.5 to +7.5), passing through the top key numbers of 3 and 7. Pros have quietly leaned over as well, raising the total from 39.5 to 42.5. Only 34% bets but 47% is on the over, a sharp contrarian over bet discrepancy. The Colts are 5-1 to the over at home this season.

 

8:15 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (-4.5, 48) 

The Broncos (7-6) have won six of their last seven games and just crushed the Chargers 24-7, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Lions (9-4) have lost two of their last three games and just fell to the Bears 28-13, losing outright as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with the Lions listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. The public is undecided and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. Early in the week, we saw the Lions fall to -3.5 before getting steamed back up to -4.5. Some shops are even inching up to -5. Essentially, we are seeing late movement break toward Detroit, who is only receiving 47% of bets but 72% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split. Denver is playing their third-straight road game, which is typically a tough spot. John Hussey, the leaf ref, is 58% ATS to the home team historically. The Broncos are in a great teaser spot (+4.5 to +10.5), passing through multiple key numbers. Russell Wilson is 35-18 ATS (66%) as a dog in his career. Pros have also leaned over, raising the total from 47 to 48. Currently 49% of bets but 61% of money is on the over, a sharp bet split.