Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Saturday December 23

108
 

NFL Quick Links:
Super Bowl | Betting Splits | Odds | Picks | Matchups

 

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, live from the DraftKings studio in Boston.

You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s NFL Week 16 doubleheader.

 

4:30 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 38) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Bengals (8-6) have won three straight games and just edged the Vikings 27-24, pushing as 3-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Steelers (7-7) have lost three straight games and just fell to the Colts 30-13, failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs.

This line opened at roughly a pick’em. The public is all over the red-hot Bengals, with 73% of bets backing Cincinnati. This lopsided support has steamed the Bengals up to a 3-point road favorite. However, now that we’ve reached the key number of 3 we’re starting to see some buyback on the Steelers, as Pittsburgh +3 is being juiced up to -115, signaling a possible fall back down to 2.5.

Pittsburgh is only receiving 27% of bets but 34% of money, a sharp contrarian "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy. Divisional dogs are 194-161 ATS (55%) since 2020. Conference dogs +6 or less are 327-250 ATS (57%) sine 2019. Mike Tomlin is 55-31 ATS (64%) as a dog and 55-41 ATS (57%) off a loss.

Sharps have also leaned under, as the total has dipped slightly from 39 to 38. The under is receiving 59% of bets and 62% of money. When the total is less than 39 the under is 24-13 (65%) this season. Outdoor divisional unders are 104-72 (59%) since 2021. Pittsburgh is 10-4 to the under, the best under team in the NFL. The forecast calls for mid 40s with cloudy skies and 5 MPH winds. The Steelers will start Mason Rudolph at quarterback. The Bengals will be without star WR Ja’Marr Chase due to a shoulder injury. 

 

8 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills (-12.5, 44) at Los Angeles Chargers

The Bills (8-6) have won three of their last four games and just crushed the Cowboys 31-10, easily covering as 2.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Chargers (5-9) have lost five of their last six games and just got absolutely destroyed by the Raiders 63-21, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. 

This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 9.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover with the surging Bills. Currently 78% of bets are laying the points with Buffalo. This lopsided support has steamed the Bills up from -9.5 to -12.5. Double digit favorites are 12-8 ATS (60%) this season. 

The Chargers are the ultimate buy-low play, as Los Angeles is a contrarian home dog with an inflated line in primetime receiving only 22% of bets. Dogs off a blowout loss of 35-points or more are 58-29 ATS (67%) since 2004. Primetime dogs are 115-88 ATS (57%) since 2020. Los Angeles enjoys a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Bills played on Sunday. Los Angeles might also get a "new coach" motivational bump as this is the first game since firing their head coach Brandon Staley. He has been replaced by Giff Smith on an interim basis. 

Pros have also hammered the over, raising the total from 40.5 to 44. Currently 67% of bets and 63% of money is taking the over. Both teams are 10-4 to the under. Primetime unders are 32-18 (64%) this season but the over is 9-3 in the last 12 primetime games.