Michael Lombardi: A look ahead to NFL Week 16

A Look Ahead to Week 16

When I first watched Trevor Lawrence during his freshman season at Clemson, I was stunned and in awe. While playing in Death Valley, he quickly demonstrated rare athletic talent, arm strength, play-making ability, and the will to win. He started 40 games for the Tigers, won a National Championship and his NFL future looked unlimited.

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Lawrence’s first season was horrible under first-time NFL head coach Urban Meyer.  Meyer was unequipped to handle the job. He had no understanding of the pro game or a pro-offensive attack. Then in his second season, Lawrence showed promise. Nothing elite or franchise-carrying worthy, just way better than his first season. He did improve under head coach Doug Pederson, helping the Jags win the South and a home playoff game against the Chargers. It was an improvement and perhaps a precursor of better days ahead. 

This season, we all expected the giant spike due to the second year in the same offensive system, the comfortability with the offense, and the improvement of talent around him. NFL fans were going to witness the Clemson version of Lawrence arriving in Duval, taking the South by storm, making the Jags one of the best teams in the AFC.  That hasn’t happened—and it appears unlikely to occur. Lawrence has been turnover-prone, mistake-prone, and inconsistent with his accuracy and decision-making.  He isn’t a bust, but he also isn’t worthy of the huge extension he is going to receive when his rookie deal expires. 

Perception and draft status rule most evaluations. If Lawrence had Brock Purdy’s numbers this season, he would easily be the MVP, and the folks in Canton would be asking for his jacket size, preparing for his arrival in fifteen years. Do you believe if Lawrence was in San Francisco, he would duplicate the Purdy numbers? Take a moment to answer before assuming the answer is yes. 

The only reason you might be unwilling to concede that Purdy is better than Lawrence lies entirely because of draft status, not performance. If you did a blind study of the two, Purdy would be the better player. I wouldn’t trade Purdy for Lawrence even up, nor would Kyle Shanahan. The tape doesn’t lie. Purdy is better than good; he is sensational with his timing, accuracy and decision-making. Watch the tape, don’t make excuses or labels. 

Purdy is labeled a game manager and a system quarterback, which is unfair. All quarterbacks need the right system to function. The system can only work when the talent enhances the system.  Did Nick Mullens or CJ Beathard make the system shine in San Francisco? Nope. But Purdy is only good because of the system? Seems like a contradiction.   

If Purdy is all system, then what is Lawrence? Why has Lawrence been unable to beat good teams at home or play well in big games? Is it because of the talent in Jacksonville? The offense? Or both? In fairness to Lawrence, the Jags are not a tough team. They are soft on offense, don’t have a strong offensive line, and their answer to every problem is to throw a pass. They place the game on his shoulders, and so far in his young career, he hasn’t been able to handle the responsibility. 

This isn’t an anti-Lawrence column. Instead, stop evaluating the draft position of players and let their play speak for themselves. If you compare Lawrence to other quarterbacks, he appears closer to being better than Daniel Jones, not Patrick Mahomes. He appears closer to Jacoby Brissett than Josh Allen. Now, we all know his career arc can change if the right offense, system, and talent surround him. Does that make Lawrence a system quarterback?

Troy Aikman struggled in his first two years. When Norv Turner arrived to run the offense, and Emmitt Smith, along with Michael Irvin, were there to make plays, Aikman became great. Does this make him a system player? In Year 3, Aikman showed his talent and backed up his number one overall draft status. In Year 3 for Lawrence, that hasn’t happened. 

Why hasn’t there been more outrage towards Lawrence? The Jags know they have to pay big money to keep him, but they also know he doesn’t deserve the big deal—not yet. The lesson we all must remind ourselves each day is to not let perception rule the handicap, or the evaluation of the player. Trust your eyes, not the draft position. 

Top Five Quarterbacks

1. Brock Purdy – Purdy is 5-1 in night games for the 49ers and was 6-0 when he played at Iowa State under the lights. Purdy is a primetime player. 

2. Patrick Mahomes – Mahomes has only lost to the Raiders once in his career and has covered seven times, losing four. 

3. Josh Allen – Allen finally was able to play a game when he didn’t throw a pick. Of course, when you hand the ball off 49 times, the chances of throwing a pick are low. 

4. Dak Prescott – He ended his MVP chances with a bad game in Buffalo. Was this Cowboy performance flu-related or just bad? We will find out on Sunday vs. the Dolphins. 

5. Lamar Jackson – Jackson seems to always play well in big games. When Jackson is an underdog, he holds an 84.5% win percentage against the spread.  8-5 SU, 11-2 ATS. 

Bottom Five Quarterbacks – All Ranked 32nd

With so many teams uncertain of who will be the starter, there are more than enough candidates to be No. 32. So instead of making an order, I made them all 32 and would advise not betting on them to win or cover. 

Tennessee Quarterbacks – Seattle would prefer Will Levis instead of Ryan Tannehill.  And if I knew for sure it was Tannehill, then I would move someone else into this spot.  The Titans getting 3.5 at home with Tannehill would be a good bet. 

Jets Quarterbacks – Does it matter who starts?  It doesn’t, and as of Friday morning, we don’t know.             

Tommy DeVito – Surprisingly, he is still the starter this week. Lincoln Financial will be a tough venue for him as he is prone to take sacks on 18% of his throws. 

Bailey Zappe – Zappe heads to Denver for a possible snow game and faces a defense that relies on turnovers, which he has been more than willing to provide. No wonder the line has moved to seven points. 

Mason Rudolph – Prior to last week’s game, we haven’t seen Rudolph throw a pass since 2021. He has started 10 games in his career and won five. 

Power Rankings

The Bills continue to move up, and the Eagles move down. The Rams proved their ranking with a dominating win against the Saints last night. 

Hall and Oates Play: I Can’t Go for That

Washington at the New York Jets – This was the easiest decision of the week for me. In fact, I knew Sunday night, this game would require Daryl and John to sing their tune.  On paper, getting the Commanders and three points seems like a good play against a Jets offense that has been historically bad, and we don’t know who will play quarterback.  However, trusting Washington is a huge risk, one I would be unwilling to take. I’d rather not ruin my Christmas Eve meal by watching this game. So, I’m out. 

Line of the Week

If you have watched the Packers play the last two weeks, seeing them as a five-point road favorite seems completely illogical. You might claim they are playing the Panthers, so the line has to warrant the level of competition. As bad as the Panthers have been all season, they can run the ball effectively, they can play good pass defense and will compete, especially at home. I understand the Packers being the favorite, which in my power ratings this week had the line near four. But five? Wow, that seems like a reach and one the book wants you to take. When the book throws a number too good to be true, step back and re-evaluate.

Happy Holidays to all. Thanks for reading, and enjoy family, friends and football.