Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, live from the DraftKings studio in Boston.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Sunday’s NFL Week 14 slate.
1 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 44)
The Colts (7-5) have won four straight games and just took down the Titans 31-28 in overtime, covering as 1.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Bengals (6-6) just snapped their three-game losing skid with a 34-31 win over the Jags in overtime, winning outright as 10-point road dogs. This line opened with the Colts listed as a 2-point road favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Bengals, flipping Cincinnati from +2 to -2.5. In other words, we are seeing sharp "dog to favorite" line movement on the the home team. The Bengals are receiving 55% of bets but 66% of money, signaling a relatively undecided public but also respected pro money. Those looking to follow the sharp action but wary of laying the points could instead target Cincinnati on the moneyline at -135. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season, like Cincinnati here, are 36-25 ATS (59%) this season. Pros have also hit the over, raising the total up from 41 to 44.
4:25 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 49)
The Bills (6-6) have lost three of their last four games and just fell to the Eagles 37-34, pushing as 3-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Chiefs (8-4) have rotated wins and losses over their last five games and just fell to the Packers 27-19, losing outright as 6-point road favorites. This line opened with the Chiefs listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public likes the Chiefs to bounce back laying a short spread at home. However, despite receiving 68% of bets we’ve seen Kansas City fall from -3 to -1.5. Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover with the Chiefs? Because pro money has taken the road dog, triggering line movement in favor of the Bills. Short road dogs +3 or less are 118-95 ATS (55%) since 2019. Josh Allen is 16-9 ATS (64%) as a dog in his career. This is a massive "rest vs tired" advantage in favor of the Bills, as Buffalo is coming off a bye while Kansas City played on Monday night. The Bills are in a prime teaser spot (+1.5 to +7.5), passing through multiple key numbers.
8:20 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 51.5)
The Eagles (10-2) just saw their five-game winning streak come to an end, falling to the 49ers 42-19 last week and failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Cowboys (9-3) have won four straight games and just edged the Seahawks 41-35 but failed to cover as 9.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Cowboys listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public sees two evenly matched teams and is rushing to the window to grab the points with the trendy dog Eagles. However, despite 62% of bets backing Philadelphia we’ve actually seen this line move further to Dallas -2.5 to -3. It has even reached Cowboys -3.5 throughout the week. Essentially, all movement and liability is on the contrarian favorite Cowboys, who are receiving sharp reverse line movement in a classic "fade the trendy dog" scenario. This line is similar to last week when the public was all over the Eagles but the sharps triggered sharp RLM on the 49ers. Dallas enjoys a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while Philadelphia played on Sunday. Pros have also leaned over, with the total ticking up from 48.5 to 51.5.
