Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, LIVE from the DraftKings studio in Boston.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Sunday’s NFL Week 12 slate.
1 p.m. ET: Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5, 48) at Houston Texans
The Jaguars (7-3) have won six of their last seven games and just brushed aside the Titans 34-14, easily covering as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Texans (6-4) have won three straight and just edged the Cardinals 21-16 but failed to cover as 5.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Jags listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is too low and currently 55% of bets are laying the points with the Jags. The line rose to Jags -2.5 earlier in the week. Since that time, we’ve seen a steady dose of sharp buyback on the Texans, dropping the line back down to Jags -1.5. Essentially, late money is breaking back toward Houston. Some books in Vegas are even inching down toward a pick’em. The Texans have value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. CJ Stroud is 5-1 ATS as a dog this season. Trevor Lawrence is 6-7 ATS as a favorite and 9-11 ATS on the road. Houston is in a prime teaser spot (+1.5 to +7.5), which passes through multiple key numbers. Pros have also leaned over, raising the total from 45 to 48. Currently 72% of bets and 74% of money is taking the over. Both of these teams rank in the top 10 in terms of pace of play.
1 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers (-2, 36.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Steelers (6-4) just saw their two-game winning streak come to an end, losing to the Browns 13-10 and failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Bengals (5-5) have lost two straight and just fell to the Ravens 34-20, failing to cover as 4-point road dogs. The early lookahead line on this game was Bengals -5 at home. However, with Joe Burrow out for the season we saw the line quickly flip to Steelers -2 on the road. Over the past few days the line moved from Steelers -1 to -2, signaling late money pouring in on Pittsburgh, who will now face Jake Browning under center for Cincinnati. The Steelers feature sharp "dog to favorite" line movement. Currently 73% of bets and 71% of money is backing Pittsburgh. Mike Tomlin is 54-39 ATS (58%) in his career off a loss, including a perfect 3-0 ATS after a loss this season. The Steelers are looking for an offensive boost after firing OC Matt Canada last week. Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 41.5 to 36.5. Currently 62% of bets and 70% of money is on the under. When the total is 40 or less, the under is 19-13 (59%) this season. Outdoor divisional unders are 98-70 (58%) since 2021. Both of these teams rank in the bottom 10 in the NFL in terms of pace of play. The Steelers are 8-2 to the under. The forecast calls for mid 40s, 9-10 MPH winds and possible some rain.
4:05 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-1.5, 36.5)
The Browns (7-3) have won three straight games and just edged the Steelers 13-10, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Broncos (5-5) have won four straight games and just eked by the Vikings 21-20 but failed to cover as 2.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Browns listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. We’ve seen this line flip to Broncos -1.5, signaling sharp "dog to favorite" line movement on Denver. Currently 56% of bets and 58% of money is backing the Broncos, indicating slight public support but also respected sharp action. Denver has buy-low value as a team who didn’t cover last week against a sell-high teams that did cover. Those looking to follow the sharp move but wary of laying points could instead target Denver on the moneyline -120. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 40.5 to 37. Currently 63% of bets and 72% of money is taking the under, a notable "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy. When the total falls at least a half point the under is 63-37 (63%) this season. The under is 17-10 (63%) since Russell Wilson joined the Broncos. Denver is one one of the slowest teams in the NFL, ranking 31st in pace of play.
