Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Thursday Night Football Jaguars-Saints

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

 

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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday Night Football…

 

8:15 p.m. ET: Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints (-1, 40)

The Jaguars (4-2) have won three straight games and just took down the Colts 37-20, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Saints (3-3) have dropped three of their last four games and just fell to the Texans 20-13, losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites. 

This line opened at roughly a pick’em. Early in the week, we saw the Saints get steamed to -3 following the news that Jags QB Trevor Lawrence was dealing with a knee issue. Then we saw major buyback on the Jags as news leaked out that Lawrence’s knee was feeling better and he is now expected to play. This caused the Saints to fall from -3 back down to -1. Currently 60% of bets are taking the points with Jacksonville, making the Jags a bit of a trendy dog.

Short road dogs +3 or less are 11-5 ATS (69%) since this season and 110-84 ATS (57%) since 2019. However, it’s been a chalky year overall thus far in the NFL, with favorites going 48-42 ATS (53%) entering Week 7. The Saints have value as a rare contrarian favorite (only 40% of bets) in a primetime game as well as a non-conference favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the "better" team. Thursday night home favorites are 3-2 ATS this season and 85-69 ATS (55%) since 2005.

The Jags have the edge on offense, averaging 24 PPG compared to 18 PPG for the Saints. However, New Orleans has the better defense, allowing 16 PPG compared to 20 PPG for Jacksonville. 

Pros have also steamed the under, dropping the total from 42 down to 40. Currently 63% of bets and 64% of dollars are taking the under, signaling both Pro and Joe support. Unders are 56-36 (61%) this season. When the total falls at least a half point the under is 37-18 (67%). Non-conference unders are 18-8 (69%). Primetime unders are 12-6 (67%) this season and 134-86 (61%) since 2019. The Saints are a perfect 6-0 to the under this season