Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday Night Football.
8:15 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 37)
The Titans (3-4) just snapped a two-game losing streak with a 28-23 win over the Falcons, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Steelers (4-3) just saw their two-game winning streak come to an end, falling to the Jaguars 20-10 and failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs.
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public sees two evenly matched teams and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite the tickets being split down the middle 50/50, we’ve seen the Steelers fall from -3.5 to -2.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even. So we know this move was triggered by wiseguys grabbing the points with the Titans, causing line movement in favor of the road dog. Tennessee is only receiving 50% of bets but 63% of money, further evidence of smart money grabbing the points with the Titans.
Shorts road dogs +3 or less are 13-8 ATS (62%) this season and 112-87 ATS (56%) since 2019. Primetime dogs are only 10-13 ATS (43%) this season but 102-77 ATS (57%) since 2020. Mike Vrabel is 4-2 ATS as a dog this season and 27-17 ATS (61%) as a dog in his career. Mike Tomlin is fantastic against the spread as a dog (55-29 ATS, 66%) but only 82-94 ATS (47%) as a favorite.
Those looking to play the Titans would be wise to shop around for a +3 or even consider buying the Titans up from +2.5 to the key number of +3. Most books are Titans +2.5 at +100 or -105, which means buying a half point up to +3 would be roughly +3 at -120 or -125. In this case, the juice might be worth the squeeze because if the Titans lose by 3 (the most common key number) then bettors will push their bet instead of lose at +2.5. Tennessee is also in the prime "teaser zone." By teasing the Titans up from +2.5 to +8.5 bettors are able to pass through multiple key numbers (3 and 7).
We haven’t seen much movement on the total, as it opened at 37 and hasn’t gone up or down. Currently 46% of bets and 50% of money is taking the under. Unders are 72-49 (60%) this season. Primetime unders are 17-7 (71%) this season and 139-87 (62%) since 2019. When the total is less than 40, the under is 10-7 (59%) this season. The forecast calls for low 40s with partly cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds.
