Betting Splits and Sharp Money Picks for NFL Win Totals

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In the meantime, let’s turn our attention to several NFL Win Totals taking in sharp action for the upcoming season (data via BetMGM). 

 

Dallas Cowboys Over 9.5 wins

The Cowboys’ win total opened at 9.5 with the over juiced up to -130. We’ve seen the over juice rise from -130 to -150, signaling liability on the over and a possible rise up to 10. The over is receiving 96% of bets and 99% of money, indicating both Pro and Joe support. The Cowboys have gone 12-5 the past two seasons. Dallas has stability at the coach/QB position, led by Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy (who is entering Year 4 wearing the head set). Dallas added WR Brandin Cooks and CB Stephon Gilmore in free agency. 

 

Los Angeles Chargers Over 9.5 wins

The Chargers have seen the juice on their win total rise from 9.5 over -115 to -120, indicating respected action to win double-digit games. The Chargers are receiving 73% of bets and 98% of money, a sharp +25% bet discrepancy. Los Angeles went 10-7 last season. QB Justin Herbert is entering Year 4. Head Coach Brandon Staley is entering Year 3 and has improved each season, going 9-8 and then 10-7 last year. The Chargers retained star RB Austin Ekeler and drafted WR Quentin Johnston in the first round. 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers Over 8.5 wins

The Steelers opened at 8.5 with the over juiced to -120. We’ve seen the over juice rise to -145, signaling sharp liability on the over. The over is receiving 91% of bets and 98% of dollars, a heavy combination or both Pro and Joe support. Pittsburgh went 9-8 last season and has never had a losing year under Mike Tomlin. The Steelers have the 8th easiest schedule this season based on their opponents’ won-loss record from last year (134-151-1, .476). Sharps seem to be bullish on QB Kenny Pickett entering his sophomore season. 

 

Seattle Seahawks Over 8.5 wins

Similar to the Steelers, the Seahawks have seen the juice shoot up on their over win total. It opened at 8.5 with the over juiced to -120 and now the over has moved to -140. The Seattle over is receiving 92% of bets and 99% of money, evidence of an overload of public and sharp support. Seattle was one of the biggest surprises last season, going 9-8 (their win total was 5.5). Seattle has an experienced head coach in Pete Carroll. QB Geno Smith enters Year 2 as the unquestioned starter. Seattle added a pair of first round picks in the draft in CB Devon Witherspoon and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Seahawks also brought back LB and team leader Bobby Wagner. 

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 6.5 wins

The Bucs have seen a complete flip in terms of their win total juice. It opened at 6.5 with the over juiced to -130 and now it’s moved to 6.5 with the under juiced to -130. Essentially we are looking at a "dog to favorite" line flip, but in this case it’s the over to under juice flip. The under is receiving 94% of bets and 95% of money, indicating a wave of lopsided action. The Bucs went 8-9 with Tom Brady last season. Now they turn to Baker Mayfield at quarterback. Based upon the low win total and offseason juice movement, sharps are looking to fade Mayfield. 

 

Tennessee Titans Under 7.5 wins

The Titans’ win total opened at 7.5 with the under juiced to -115 and now the under juice has grown to -125. This juice movement is notable because the public is hammering the over (83% of bets), yet we’ve seen the liability go under. In other words, if the public is hitting the over, why are the books jacking up the price on the under? Shouldn’t it be the other way around? This signals sharp reverse line movement on the under, which is receiving only 17% of bets but 38% of money, a +21% discrepancy. Tennessee went 7-10 last year. Once again, this is likely an indictment on the quarterback position, with pros fading Ryan Tannehill, Will Levis and Malik Willis.