Betting Trends for NFL Quarterback Changes

Betting Trends for NFL Quarterback Changes:

In my offseason NFL preparation, I addressed one of several key offseason changes that affect teams heading into each season: the hiring of new head coaches. I detailed how rookie coaches do as compared to re-tread coaches, and highlighted key trends and systems in which to back or fade each. Perhaps even more important to bettors is the changing of a team’s starting quarterback. Like the coaches, this can come in two different forms, either a rookie being ushered in to guide a team’s immediate future, or a seasoned veteran being brought in to take over. Using the same logic I applied last week in evaluating overall performance as well as game-by-game angles for the coaches, I’m here now to do the same for the new quarterbacks. I’ve offered up my own thoughts on these new QB faces in new places as well.

I’ll start out by introducing the two rookie quarterbacks that are expected to start for their respective franchises this season, and then move on to the three veteran quarterbacks that have or will have found new homes for 2025.

Two NFL rookie QBs expected to test betting systems in 2025

After just one rookie quarterback saw significant playing time in 2022, the last two years have brought nine who started at least seven games for their teams. Five of them were expected first-season starters while the other four saw extensive action after taking over for injured incumbents or being given an earlier shot due to team struggles. For 2025, this year’s NFL draft saw a pair of young quarterbacks get drafted in the first round, with only Cam Ward of Tennessee expected to start out of the gate. However, we will also be seeing the rookie season of a player drafted early in 2024, the Vikings’ JJ McCarthy. There are some other possibilities that may develop as the season wears on, most notably Jaxson Dart of the Giants, and either Dillon Gabriel or Shadeur Sanders in Cleveland. The Browns’ current QB room is about as messy of a situation as I can recall in years as we head into the offseason on-field activities:

Interestingly, in recent years, the strategy of going with a rookie over a veteran has actually paid dividends, as over the last decade, 36 rookie QBs have started extensively for their teams, and only 14 of them posted worse won-lost records in their first season as compared to the team’s prior year. In that same time span, 17 different teams have turned to 8+ year veterans as their new starters, and 11 of those teams got worse that season.

Cam Ward (Tennessee) – Ward, the top pick in the draft, takes over for Will Levis for the Titans. The offense showed sparks of promise under Levis in his two seasons, but nothing consistent enough for him to keep the job. Ward was a star for the Miami Hurricanes last year, lighting up the scoreboard and collecting many of the nation’s top QB awards. He has also been very effusive with the praise he has shown to the future Tennessee offensive colleagues he will be sharing the field with. According to most experts, he was the quarterback most ready for the NFL.

JJ McCarthy (Minnesota) – McCarthy, the 10^th pick in the 2024 NFL draft, missed the entire season last year due to a torn meniscus. However, he was expected to play behind Sam Darnold to start the season anyway, and with the campaign Darnold enjoyed, it’s unlikely McCarthy would have seen any extensive time anyhow. With the franchise electing not to pay Darnold the big bucks, McCarthy steps into what has become a high-pressure spot. The Vikings were 14-3 last year, boast the premier wide receiver in the game, and have every intention of contending in the NFC. It will be difficult for McCarthy to match last year’s production at the position, but he is in a spot to win early.

Many franchises that picked these former stars don’t have the luxury of being patient, so they are thrusting their prized rookies into significant roles right out of the gate. With the importance of the quarterback position in the NFL, the decisions to give these guys starting spots immediately will have huge implications on the outright and betting results of their respective teams. As such, I’ve personally made it a habit of tracking rookie QB records and betting systems in recent seasons. Knowing how they perform historically is of great advantage to bettors. Thankfully, there have been some discernible patterns that have emerged regarding rookie quarterback performance, and we should all take notice and take advantage.

If you consider that there are 272 regular season games, and last year there were 62 starts made by regular starting rookie QBs, understanding when these first-time signal callers perform at their best and worst levels is crucial.

Of course, not all these rookies will succeed; their levels of achievement will vary greatly. Some may go on to become Super Bowl champion quarterbacks, others may settle in as solid starters for teams, some will flounder and have short careers, while others might become career journeymen. Just this past year, we experienced the full gamut. Washington’s Jayden Daniels set 20-year benchmarks for wins and points scored. On the other end of the spectrum, Caleb Williams of Chicago lost 10 straight games at one point. Whatever the case, without foundation-based historical analysis, football bettors typically have their hands full in getting to know these new players at the sport’s most crucial position.

I’ve logged all rookie quarterbacks over the last two decades who have started at least seven games in their initial NFL season. There were 59 such players since 2005, including four in 2024 alone. As you can see from the chart, the first player tracked is Alex Smith, the first player selected in the 2005 draft, who went on to a long, fruitful career. In addition to analyzing the player-by-player performances for all 59 guys, I’ve also gone and uncovered some various betting systems that have developed using these rookie quarterbacks. As a bettor, you should look to employ some of the more noteworthy systems when the time comes for any of our 2025 rookie class to be inserted as starters in their teams’ rotations. Note that these systems are continually offered and tracked all season long on our weekly NFL Analytics Reports.

As you look at the chart, one of the first things that you’ll want to digest is that the majority of these rookie quarterbacks do help their teams improve. In fact, only 20 of the 59 teams showed a worse winning percentage in that new quarterback’s games started that rookie season than they did the prior season. Four maintained the same winning percentage while the other 35 helped their teams improve.  The combined success rate of these 59 players was 319-464-2 SU (40.7%) and 393-375-8 ATS (51.2%). You can’t profit by simply backing or fading these rookies and their teams blindly, neither on money lines or point spreads; that is where the systems below come in, guiding you to the spots in which they are best backed or faded.

VIEW NFL ROOKIE STARTING QUARTERBACK CHART HERE

Betting Systems Involving Rookie Quarterbacks

Using the 59-player sample dating back to 2005 and their individual game logs in that span, I was able to come up with several definitive betting systems, considering variables such as line ranges, home/road dichotomy, depth into the season, and type of opponent faced, among others. Let’s dig right into them and then be sure to cross-reference them against the schedules for each team when released:

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are running hot the last three years
I indicated winning percentages of 40.7% straight up and 51.2% ATS for rookie quarterbacks since 2005. The results of the last few seasons are much better. In fact, the 10 rookie QBs over the last three seasons have put together a collective record of 61-72 SU (45.9%) and 74-52-7 ATS (58.7%). This even includes the miserable season put together by #1 pick Bryce Young of the Panthers in 2023.
Analysis: In my opinion, much of the recent success of the rookie quarterbacks can be attributed to the fact that seven of the 10 players represented in the sample were very high draft picks. In other words, NFL scouts deemed these players ready to contribute right away. Many of them also stepped into lower-pressure situations, with their teams coming off poor seasons. The expectations were only to grow into the position. They have instead excelled at helping their teams both improve and cover Vegas’ numbers.

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #2 – Rookie quarterbacks are a risky bet in the postseason
In their last 14 playoff games, rookie quarterbacks are just 4-10 SU and 5-9 ATS (35.7%). However, Jayden Daniels did win a pair of games this past season.
Analysis: The pressure of the postseason is a lot to bear for a rookie quarterback, and the best resumes are typically built on playoff success. For the elite quarterbacks, this usually comes later in their careers. In seven of those last 10 losses, the rookie’s offense was held to 17 points or less. The most recent loss in this regard came following last season, when Daniels’ Commanders were overwhelmed by the Eagles in the NFL title game, 55-23.

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #3 – Rookie quarterbacks have gotten off to slow starts of late
As part of their overall recent struggles, rookie quarterbacks have struggled for bettors as early-season starters, going 6-23-1 SU and 11-18-1 ATS (37.9%) in their last 21 week 1-3 games. They are also on a 28-10 Under the total (73.7%) run in their last 38 such contests.
Analysis: Typically, rookie starters are sided against by those setting the odds early simply because of their inexperience. After a 45-27-1 ATS run from 2004-20, the tables have been turned on rookie QBs the last few seasons, as they have gone just 6-22-2 in their last 17 games while leading their teams to just 17.7 PPG. Obviously, this has contributed to a lot of Unders on totals as well.

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Rookie quarterbacks have experienced major late-season woes
For as much as rookie QBs have struggled early in recent years, over the long haul, or since 2008, the part of the season in which they have struggled worst is in weeks 10-15, as they are just 103-158 SU and 111-139-11 ATS (44.4%) in that time span.
Analysis: Most offensive coordinators are slow to trust their rookie quarterbacks in expanding their offenses, making it much easier for opposing teams to study and prepare for them. There may also be the factor of hitting the “rookie wall” after a few months of being in the league. If you figure a college season is usually 12-13 games, if you add three preseason games to 10 regular season contests, you can easily understand why this period in the season might be taxing on rookies.

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results for rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 137-123 ATS (52.7%) in home games but just 119-141 ATS (45.8%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, Week 10-EOY, they are just 39-106 SU and 60-83-2 ATS (42%).
Analysis: This system is all about the increasing pressures in the NFL for quarterbacks, and typically only the most seasoned pros can thrive in late-season road contests. Rookie quarterbacks are a definite play against in such games.

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 21 games, going 21-121 SU and 56-82-4 ATS (40.6%).
Analysis: As much as bettors in the NFL like to think that a large point spread can provide the necessary cushion and insurance for betting on a rookie quarterback, it simply isn’t the case. As underdogs, these quarterbacks (and teams) are simply overwhelmed. These teams are scoring just 16.8 PPG in those contests, and backing teams with that low of production consistently is just not a sound strategy. Remember, only the league’s most woeful offenses get assigned large underdog lines like that.

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Rookie QBs have been phenomenal in the big favorite role
Since 2008, rookie starting quarterbacks laying 7 points or more have gone 33-1 SU and 22-11-1 ATS (66.7%)!
Analysis: This is somewhat rare, but it did happen six times between Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels last year. Nix was 2-0 SU and ATS as such. These games have been as close to automatic as anything, with 33 outright wins in 34 tries. Assume that there is plenty of reason that these rookie QBs’ teams are favored by a hefty amount, and oddsmakers have accounted for the quarterbacks’ inexperience already in building the line. The results have been definitive, with average scores of 31.1 to 13.9.

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 – Rookie quarterbacks have been incredible bets in the home favorite role over the last five seasons
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 41-11 SU and 38-13-1 ATS (74.5%).
Analysis: This particular system was a massive winner for me in the 2024 season, as Nix, Williams, and Daniels combined to go 15-3 SU and ATS in the home chalk spot. Odds makers can prove to be a reliable guide for when to back and fade rookie starting quarterbacks. In system #6 above, I detailed the reasons why to fade them as large underdogs. Alternatively, when given the nod from the experts when playing at home, these rookies perform admirably. The average point production is 27.9 PPG in this system, usually a total big enough to cover chalk lines.

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – Rookie quarterbacks are not good bets as small road dogs
Over the last 12 seasons, rookie starting quarterbacks have proven not worthy of backing as small road underdogs, going 21-52 SU but 30-41-2 ATS (42.3%) when catching +4.5 points or fewer.
Analysis: Things are typically tougher on the road in the NFL. Rookie QBs find this out the hard way. QB experience seems to be a big difference maker in these expected tight games.

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been toughest for rookie starting quarterbacks
The breakdown of success level against Division, Conference, and Non-Conference opponents has been definitive for rookie starting quarterbacks. Here are those trends:
–  Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 48-105 SU and 64-84-4 ATS (43.2%) versus divisional opponents.
–  Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 54-63 SU but 67-49 ATS (57.8%).
–  Since 2022, rookie QBs are 19-15 SU and 20-11-3 ATS (64.5%) versus non-conference foes.
Analysis: You may think these are random, but it seems that the extreme ends of the familiarity of opponent index lead to some trendy performance levels for rookie quarterbacks.

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 166 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 53-113 SU and 75-88-2 ATS (46%). This trend dates back to 2018.
Analysis: With most struggling teams, it’s hard to pull themselves up in struggling times. With the prospects of a rookie QB leading the way, the task becomes even more ominous.

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #12 – Non-Sunday games have been a respite for rookie QBs
Rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 20-23 SU & 27-14-2 ATS (65.9%) in their last 43 such tries. Moreover, they are 20-6-1 ATS (76.9%) in their last 27 Monday Night contests.
Analysis: Typically, the non-Sunday games are a little bit higher stakes, as in most cases, they are stand-alone nationally broadcast games. It’s a welcomed sign to see these rookie quarterbacks compete well in such scenarios.

The key systems for three veteran NFL QBs leading new teams in 2025

As opposed to drafting a rookie quarterback and promptly inserting him into their starting lineup, some franchises choose to go the veteran route and trade for or sign an experienced signal caller to try and bolster their immediate futures. This strategy has brought fairly mixed results and ranges from winning Super Bowls that first year to plummeting below what they were prior. According to my records, there have been 17 instances over the last decade in which teams brought in veteran QBs who had been in the league at least eight years and started extensively during that span for one or more teams. Last year, this was the case for four teams. Three of them failed to meet the won-lost records posted in 2023. Even still, many of these acquisitions are among the biggest storylines of the entire NFL offseason. For 2025, we unofficially have three veteran quarterbacks expected to take over franchises for the first time. As you’ll see, I’ve included Aaron Rodgers, who, although not contracted officially, all signs seem to be pointing to him joining the Steelers for perhaps a final run before calling it a career. We will also be seeing Geno Smith take over in Las Vegas, and Russell Wilson leading the Giants, presumptively as a placeholder until rookie Jaxson Dart is ready to go. Here are my thoughts on those three veteran QB faces in new places:

Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh) – The two years in New York were an utter disappointment for both Rodgers and the Jets, as a full season was lost to injury, and the second was simply lost. From the sounds of it, the Steelers believe Rodgers might still have enough in the tank to get them over what has been a playoff wall they’ve been unable to climb lately. Their defense has been elite, their running game enough to win big, but the passing game, and in particular the quarterback play, has fallen short. Pittsburgh has made some key moves on offense, adding WR DK Metcalf, letting RB Najee Harris walk, and trading away WR George Pickens, so with ARod in the fold, it will be an entirely reworked unit. Is it enough? We’ll see, and of course, this all hinges on Rodgers actually landing in the Steel City.

Russell Wilson (NY Giants) – The Russell Wilson experiment in Denver was a disaster. Fortunately, the Broncos were able to quickly recover last season with rookie QB Bo Nix taking on a starring role. Wilson then moved on to Pittsburgh, and after a fast start in which he went 6-1 SU and ATS after taking over for Justin Fields, the offense unraveled, scoring just 14.2 PPG in losing their final five games. That was enough for the Steelers to realize that he wasn’t going to be the postseason answer. Instead, he now moves to New York to mentor and keep the seat warm for rookie RB Jaxson Dart. The Giants come off a couple of rough seasons, and there is a lot of work to do, but the franchise is very pleased with their recent draft haul, which received the only A+ grade in the league from SI.

Geno Smith (Las Vegas) – The Seahawks won with Geno Smith, and he put up big numbers, so it was somewhat surprising to see them let Smith get away. Of course, it was also surprising to see the franchise move on from head coach Pete Carroll after the 2023 season. Ironically, those two reunite for 2025 in Las Vegas in what should be an interesting situation to watch. Smith was the full-time starter for two years under Carroll and went 17-15 with 50 TDs against just 20 interceptions in 2022 and 2023. He was a pro bowler in both years, so there are plenty of reasons to think this could work. However, the Raiders were just 4-13 last year while scoring 18.5 PPG, so there is a lot of work to do. With the franchise drafting RB Ashton Jeanty with the sixth pick a few weeks ago, there are already reasons to think the offense will be better.

The franchises that added these historically successful veteran quarterbacks usually share the belief that they are just a key puzzle piece or two away from hitting it big. Obviously, you could gauge the Giants and Raiders’ expectations a little lower. I have always been forthright in my belief of how important the quarterback position is in the NFL, and having someone there who has proven they can do the job can make the difference. That said, this route has not proven to be as effective in impacting improvement as adding a rookie quarterback. In fact, as I noted earlier, in the last decade, the chart shows that 17 different teams have turned to 8+ year veterans as their new starters, and 11 of those teams got worse that season.

I’ve logged all the veteran quarterbacks over the last two decades who have started at least eight games in their initial season with their new team after spending at least eight other seasons of extensive starting experience elsewhere. There were 32 such players since 2004. As you can see from the chart, the first players tracked are Vinny Testaverde, Kerry Collins, and Mark Brunell. In addition to analyzing the player-by-player performances for all 32 guys, I’ve also gone and uncovered some various game-by-game betting systems that have developed using these veteran quarterbacks. Put these to use when handicapping the games of the Steelers, Giants, and Raiders this season.

Besides the recent trend of most veteran incoming quarterbacks not improving their teams, you’ll see that  Still, only five of the last 16 had winning records as a starter that season, and only four of the 16 started a playoff game for that team, highlighted by Tom Brady of the Bucs & Matthew Stafford of the Rams who won back-to-back Super Bowls in 2021 and 2022. Furthermore, Brady’s Bucs and Peyton Manning’s 2012 Broncos were the most potent offenses of the group, both topping the 30+ PPG mark.

The combined success rate of these 32 players was 230-221-1 SU (51%) and 217-221-14 ATS (49.5%). Interestingly, only 11 of the 32 players produced a winning ATS mark, however. If you compare these numbers to those of the rookie quarterbacks in their first seasons, you’ll find an improvement of 10.3% outright but a drop of -1.7% ATS. Looking at just the last decade, the ATS mark is 104-120 ATS (46.4%). My conclusion is that these veteran players are a better choice for winning more games, albeit usually in a more expensive contract situation. However, you have to also consider that in most cases, the veteran is stepping into a more stable team situation otherwise, and that oddsmakers tend to overvalue their impact.

VIEW NFL VETERAN STARTING QUARTERBACK CHART HERE

Betting Systems involving Veteran Quarterbacks in their first year with new teams

Using the 32-player veteran QB sample dating back to 2004 and their individual game logs (452 games) in that span, I was able to come up with several definitive betting systems, considering variables such as line ranges, home/road dichotomy, depth into the season, and type of opponent faced, among others. Let’s dig right into them and then be sure to cross-reference them against the schedules for each team when released:

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Veteran quarterbacks start slow for their new teams
It takes a little time for these veteran quarterbacks to find their footing with their new franchises. In fact, dating back to 2006, in the month of September, these guys have gone 42-27-1 Under the total (60.9%), averaging about 1.5 PPG less than usual offensively.
Analysis: In my opinion, this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, as even though these are seasoned veterans we are dealing with, they are usually learning new systems themselves, and naturally their production is a bit less in September than in the latter months of the season. Both Rodgers (Jets) and Cousins (Falcons) followed this trend in ’24.

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #2 – Veteran quarterbacks are best for their new teams in the month of October
I just showed how these veteran QBs in new places struggle a bit out of the gate. Well, these QBs have rebounded nicely in October, going 44-36 SU and 42-35-3 ATS (54.5%) since 2009.
Analysis: As I said earlier, these veteran quarterbacks start slow but typically adjust well once they get their footing with their new teams.

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #3 – Veteran quarterbacks are a solid bet in the postseason
In their last 13 playoff games, the veteran quarterbacks in new places are 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS (66.7%).
Analysis: This is the reason most of these franchises add these veteran quarterbacks, to help them achieve postseason success. Including wins in seven straight games by Brady and Stafford, once these guys reach the postseason, the advantage is with them. However, Russell Wilson did lose his start for Pittsburgh last season.

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Non-Sunday games have been a struggle for veteran QBs with their new teams
Veteran quarterbacks have struggled under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 26-40 SU and 26-39-1 ATS (40%) in their last 66 such tries for their new teams. Moreover, they are 10-20-1 ATS (33.3%) in their last 31 Monday Night contests.
Analysis: This is a strange one for me, as you’d think that the pressure of stand-alone nationally broadcast games would be old hat for these season veterans. Perhaps oddsmakers are shading this experience edge.

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 125-78 SU and 107-85-11 ATS (55.7%).
Analysis: This is a very strong performance level by NFL standards, as there are very few simple angles that produce records of almost 56%. The point production in these contests has been 23.2 PPG, over 2 PPG better than on the road, a sign that even the most seasoned players can still get motivated by the love they feel from the home crowd. By comparison, in this same span, these vets are a 46.9% point spread cover on the road, an 8.8% swing.

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 83-71 SU and 83-69-2 ATS (54.6%).
Analysis: This is a similar trend to the records of the rookie QBs. By comparison, these veterans are a little better than a 47.1% point spread cover against divisional and non-conference opponents.

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Non-conference matchups have been an absolute struggle for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams over the last four years
Since 2021, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have struggled horribly against non-conference opponents, going 15-23 SU and 11-27 ATS (28.9%).
Analysis: This is a strange one as it’s hard to assume any type of motivational disadvantage here. However, 28.9% speaks for itself, and the 2-12 ATS mark for Rodgers, Cousins, Wilson, and Winston a year ago affirms the reason to start following more closely.

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 –Veteran QBs have shown an inability to strong win streaks together recently
In their last 55 starts with their new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QBs have gone just 28-27 SU and 22-32-1 ATS (40.7%). This trend dates back to 2021.
Analysis: This is somewhat opposite of the rookie QBs, who tended to have losses snowball on them. The veterans are a bit better at getting their teams to respond well to the adversity of losses. However, they haven’t fared well in dealing with success, surprisingly. These vets are only about a 50/50 money line option when guiding their teams off of wins and much worse where point spreads are concerned.

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 –Veteran quarterbacks have proven relatively trustworthy as big favorites at home with their new teams
Since 2004, veteran starting quarterbacks facing home chalk lines of 7.5 points or more have been quite successful, going 28-4 SU and 19-12-1 ATS (61.3%).
Analysis: This is a bit different from the NFL norm, as there aren’t all that many situations where I could encourage bettors to lay big numbers, even with host teams. But, these QBs, being savvy veterans, simply take care of business and get it done in these should-win games. This only happened once last year, however.

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Veteran quarterbacks have been atrocious in the road favorite role with new teams
Since the start of the 2004 season, veteran starting quarterbacks playing their first seasons with new teams have performed terribly in the road favorite role, 45-35 SU but 29-50-1 ATS (36.7%).
Analysis: This trend falls right into the trap of typical NFL tendencies. There are not that many systems where road favorites in the NFL thrive. Even with veteran QBs, these rebuilt teams struggle with the added pressure of being installed as road chalk by the experts. If you think deeper about this, how well could you expect teams that win just 51% of their games to fare as road chalk?

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as smaller road underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 35-31 SU and 44-22 ATS (66.7%) when playing as road underdogs of +5.5 points or fewer.
Analysis: Feel comfortable in taking the lesser points on the road with these veteran guys when the situations arise this season. Their experience can make all the difference in these expectedly tight games.