On Saturday, January 17, the Buffalo Bills head to Colorado for a meeting with the top-seeded Denver Broncos in the AFC Divisional Round. We try to dive into all of the big games throughout the NFL season and the NFL Playoffs won’t be any different. So keep reading for a Bills vs. Broncos betting preview. Also, make sure you head over to our NFL Divisional Round Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Bills vs. Broncos
When: Sunday, January 17 at 4:30 pm ET
Where: Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado
Channel: CBS
Bills vs. Broncos Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, January 13. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Broncos -112, Bills -108
Spread: Broncos -1.5 (+100), Bills +1.5 (-120)
Total: Over 46.5 (-115), Under 46.5 (-105)
Bills vs. Broncos Analysis
The Jaguars were a popular pick to beat the Bills in the AFC Wild Card Round, but the play at the quarterback position ended up deciding that outcome. One team had Josh Allen, while the other had Trevor Lawrence. Unsurprisingly, it was the team with Allen that won. While Jacksonville had a couple of clear on-field advantages in that matchup, Allen threw for 273 yards with a touchdown and no picks. He also rushed for another 33 yards and two scores. He made plays when Buffalo needed him to, and he did so in a mistake-free performance. Lawrence wasn’t able to do the same, throwing two costly picks in the loss.
The Bills will now be hoping for a similar outcome here. Much like Wild Card Weekend, the opponent has home-field advantage and a much better defense. Buffalo will look at that and say, “been there, done that.” However, this situation is going to require an even better performance from the Bills, and I’m just not sure we’re going to see it.
Since 2016, road teams coming off games in which they committed one or fewer turnovers are 111-204 straight-up when facing opponents with turnover margins of +2 or better. That system is good for +65.25 units and an ROI of 16.5%. It has also been wildly profitable this season, going 22-9 for +12.1 units. This system suggests the Bills won’t have another low-turnover game, especially in a meeting with a strong defensive team.
Buffalo is also taking on a Denver team that had last week off. That might not be dooming in certain matchups, but Sean Payton is one of the best head coaches in the NFL. He’s also one of the brightest offensive minds in the league. The thought of him having extra time to prepare for a mediocre Bills defense is downright scary. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Broncos have very few problems moving the ball, even with this being a bit of an up-and-down year for Bo Nix and Co. The matchup is simply too good.
Defensively, Denver has as good of a secondary as any team in the league, so they’re well-equipped to defend the Buffalo receivers. The Bills have one of the worst receiver rooms in the league, but Allen’s ability to extend plays means defensive backs have to guard longer than usual. These Broncos corners can do that. Denver is also a top-10 defensive team in the league when looking at Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.105), so the Broncos should be ready to keep James Cook III from breaking off long runs. They’re just going to have to be ready to defend Allen when the big quarterback decides to use his legs.
This just feels like a game the Broncos should win, and Payton is 3-0 SU when coming off a bye week since arriving in Denver. Also, the Bills are just 11-15 SU and 12-13-1 against the spread when facing teams with winning percentages of 75% or higher under Sean McDermott.
Bills vs. Broncos Player Props
Lean: RJ Harvey Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Denver likes to feed multiple running backs, but Harvey saw double-digit carries in six of the final seven regular-season games. Well, if he ends up touching the ball at least 12 or 13 times in this one, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t rush for at least 50 yards. Denver finished the regular season with Pro Football Focus’ top-graded offensive line. That means the Broncos should be able to carve out some big holes against the Bills, even though the line is better when it comes to pass protection. Buffalo is 31st in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed (0.049), so this team hasn’t shown that it can consistently keep opposing running backs from going off.
Bills vs. Broncos Pick
I went on Cashing Out with Dustin Swedelson on Monday to talk about some of my favorite Divisional Round plays. One of the ones I gave out was Denver moneyline at +104. It was nice grabbing plus-money odds with the top-seeded team in the AFC, but I didn’t really need that type of payout. I would play the Broncos all the way up to -125 or so here. I think Denver’s chances of winning are a little closer to 60% than 50%.
Bet: Broncos ML (+104 – 1.5 units)
