In the first of two Week 6 Monday Night Football games, the Atlanta Falcons host the Buffalo Bills at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 6 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Bills vs. Falcons
When: Monday, October 13 at 7:15 pm ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia
Channel: ESPN
Bills vs. Falcons Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, October 12. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Bills -205, Falcons +170
Spread: Bills -4.5 (-108), Falcons +4.5 (-112)
Total: Over 49.5 (-118), Under 49.5 (-102)
Bills vs. Falcons Analysis
The Bills are coming off a home loss to the Patriots. That has the general public viewing this as a bounce-back spot, with our VSiN betting splits page showing 81% of the tickets on Buffalo at DraftKings Sportsbook. However, this spread opened with Buffalo laying 5.5 on September 30, and it’s down to 4.5 at most shops now. There’s some sharp action on Atlanta, and that’s the side I’m taking here.
In this current Raheem Morris stint with the Falcons, Atlanta is 5-3 against the spread as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The team is also 7-2 both straight-up and ATS when playing from Weeks 5 through 9 under him. On top of that, the Falcons are coming off a bye week, so they have had extra time to prepare for the Bills. Also, since 1983, teams coming off division losses of three or fewer points are 28-81 when playing road games against non-conference opponents. That system is +36.2 units for an ROI of 20.8%.
The bye week is really hard to ignore here. We just saw Drake Maye and New England shred this Buffalo defense, putting some valuable stuff on film for Zac Robinson to replicate here. That means this could be a game in which Michael Penix Jr. gets cooking with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and the rest of his pass catchers. That’d be pretty big with Bijan Robinson, who has a total of 584 yards and two touchdowns this season, likely to have himself a day too. He can be counted on each and every week, but this week could be nuclear. The Bills are 28th in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed (0.029). They’ve been miserable against the run, making this a great matchup for the talented rusher.
The bye week should also be big for the defense. Morris and Jeff Ulbrich have a top-10 unit in the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.033), and the Falcons have been especially tough in the secondary. Well, as long as Josh Allen doesn’t go scorched earth as a passer, there’s really no reason Atlanta can’t keep this close — and possibly even win it.
With regards to the total, the number has dropped from 50.5 to 49.5 despite a lot of action being on the Over. I won’t have a play on it, but that could suggest the Under is the move. And that would make sense with Atlanta likely to lean on Robinson against a porous Buffalo rushing defense.
Bills vs. Falcons Player Props
Lean: Bijan Robinson Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Not only does this look like a game in which Robinson can do some damage on the ground, but our OptaAI player projections have the young star going for 44.22 receiving yards. That’s a good amount higher than his receiving yard total of 30.5. Robinson has had at least 39 receiving yards in three of the four games he has played this year, and he actually had 100 or more in two of those games. It has been a focal point to get him the ball in space, and there’s no reason Atlanta won’t be able to do that here.
Bills vs. Falcons Pick
The Bills have been good at bouncing back under Sean McDermott, but the Falcons have been sitting on this game for two weeks, they have the passing defense required to keep Joe Brady’s offense from getting hot, and they should be able to control the game with Robinson’s legs going up against a weak rushing defense. Give me Atlanta +4.5 and some moneyline.
Bet: Falcons +4.5 (-112 – 1.5 units) & Falcons ML (+175 – 0.5 units)
