On Sunday, January 11, the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars will battle in the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs. We try to dive into all of the standalone games throughout the NFL season and the NFL Playoffs won’t be any different. So keep reading for a Bills vs. Jaguars betting preview. Also, make sure you head over to our NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Bills vs. Jaguars
When: Sunday, January 11 at 1:00 pm ET
Where: EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida
Channel: CBS
Bills vs. Jaguars Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, January 7. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Bills -112, Jaguars -108
Spread: Bills -1.5 (+102), Jaguars +1.5 (-122)
Total: Over 51.5 (-112), Under 51.5 (-108)
Bills vs. Jaguars Analysis
The Jaguars head into the postseason having won eight games in a row. The Texans, who have won nine consecutive contests, are the only team in the league that can say they’re hotter right now, but Jacksonville’s numbers tell a better story than Houston’s.
The Jaguars, who will be playing in front of a fired-up Duval County crowd, are now a popular bet to defeat an inconsistent Bills team. Our VSiN betting splits pages show that Jacksonville has received most of the tickets and handle for this game. A lot of our VSiN hosts, analysts, and guests also happen to like the Jaguars side. However, while there’s a decent amount of action on Jacksonville, the line hasn’t budged at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Bills are still 1.5-point favorites after having opened there on January 5. That freeze on the number suggests the oddsmakers would rather not see Buffalo at -1 or pick’em. The opposite is true at Circa Sports, where the Bills went from -1.5 at 11:00 am ET on January 5 to pick’em on January 7. That’s interesting to note because Circa is viewed as a sharper book.
I don’t fault anyone for jumping on the Jacksonville side. The Jaguars have been awesome this season, and Liam Coen was one of my picks to win Coach of the Year in the VSiN NFL Betting Guide. I like Jacksonville’s roster and knew Coen could get them to the next level. However, I still view this as Buffalo’s game to lose.
When looking at rbsdm’s EPA team tiers, Buffalo sits in a group with elite Los Angeles and New England teams. Jacksonville is one tier below that. The big difference is the offense. While Coen is an offensive-minded coach, the Jaguars are just 12th in the NFL in EPA per play (0.039). Well, will they be able to keep up with a Bills team that is third in the league (0.145)? Like many, I’m skeptical about Trevor Lawrence going blow for blow with Josh Allen in a setting like this. Allen hasn’t yet had his breakthrough postseason for Buffalo, but it could happen now that Patrick Mahomes is no longer in his way. And I really don’t think there’s any reason Allen can’t find success in this specific matchup.
The Jaguars are fifth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.079) and fourth in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.067), so I can see why a quick glance at the numbers might suggest Jacksonville is up for the challenge of slowing Buffalo down. But we did see Matthew Stafford absolutely torch this Jaguars defense on October 19, throwing for five touchdowns and zero picks in a 35-7 Rams victory. Why is that important? Well, the Bills and Rams have borderline identical offensive numbers when looking at Dropback EPA per play (0.230 vs. 0.235) and Rush EPA per play (0.039 vs. 0.021). That said, the numbers might look good for the Jaguars over the course of the season, but they didn’t look good the last time they faced an elite offensive team.
Defensively, the Buffalo rushing defense will decide the outcome here. The Bills were 31st in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed (0.049) this season, so it’s possible to run all over this Buffalo team. However, you’d have to think Sean McDermott and his staff will have something planned here. The Bills will likely load up the box, forcing Lawrence to win this game with his arm. I’m not sure he can do that.
Bills vs. Jaguars Player Props
Lean: Josh Allen Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Allen should have a good game as a passer here, but I also think he’ll rush for at least 40 yards. Allen has actually gone Over the mark for this week’s game in four of his last five postseason games. He’s just a little more willing to put his body on the line in these bigger games. Allen also happened to rush for at least 36 yards in eight of the games he played this season.
Bills vs. Jaguars Pick
The Bills are 28-13 straight-up as road favorites under McDermott, and they’re also 5-2 in the Wild Card Round of the postseason. This team has been here before and doesn’t often lose games you’d expect them to win. That’s enough for me to jump on Buffalo in this spot. Though I think Jacksonville will learn from it and be a major factor in the Super Bowl picture next year.
Bet: Bills ML (-110 – 1.5 units)
