On Monday, October 12, we’ll see a potential Super Bowl preview as the Los Angeles Rams host the Buffalo Bills at SoFi Stadium. Keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 5 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Bills vs. Rams
When: Monday, October 12 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
Channel: ESPN
Bills vs. Rams Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Sunday, October 11. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Rams -175, Bills +145
Spread: Rams -3.5 (-120), Bill +3.5 (+100)
Total: Over 54.5 (-115), Under 54.5 (-105)
Bills vs. Rams Analysis
The Bills and Rams probably haven’t played up to expectations thus far, but it still seems extremely possible that we’ll see them clash in the Super Bowl. That said, this is one of the most exciting primetime matchups we’ll see all season, and I’m looking forward to getting into it.
I’ll start with the betting splits, which are quite telling for this one. As of late in the afternoon on Sunday, our Circa Sports betting splits page showed 62% of the tickets in this game have come in on Buffalo. However, 88% of the money is on Los Angeles, and the Rams have moved from -3 to -3.5. That shows that the sharp money is pretty clearly on Los Angeles. Also, while it’s not quite as clear with the total as it is the spread, it also looks like there’s smart money on the Over.
I don’t personally have any thoughts on the total. I lean Over with this being a meeting between two elite offenses, and the Over is 3-1 since Joe Brady became the head coach of the Bills. However, the Under is 29-14 when the Rams play as home favorites of 7 or fewer points under Sean McVay, and I do imagine Los Angeles will look to establish the run in order to keep Josh Allen off the field. That makes it a little harder to call. But I do think backing the home team is an easy decision here, even with the number being 3.5.
The Bills are the No. 2 offense in football, as they have an EPA/Play of 0.204. They’re absurdly tough to stop, as Allen absolutely terrorizes opponents with his combination of arm strength, size, and speed. James Cook is also one of the best running backs in football, and Brady is a fantastic play-caller. The issue for Buffalo is that Los Angeles is a top-five defensive team in football, ranking third in the NFL in EPA/Play Allowed (-0.107) and being stacked with talent at every level of the defense. The Rams are going to like their chances of getting some stops in this game, but will the Bills do the same? Buffalo’s defense will be the worst unit on the field, by far. That’s alarming as the Bills go up against Matthew Stafford and his loaded skill-position players.
In a game that could go back and forth, Los Angeles’ ability to get off the field should give them the edge here, and it doesn’t help Buffalo that some key pieces will be missing — including Ed Oliver.
I also expect a strong performance from the Rams after a shaky one against the Eagles last week. Under McVay, Los Angeles is 16-7 straight-up and 13-9-1 against the spread off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. If the Rams clean some things up, they’ll be in solid shape.
Bills vs. Rams Player Props
LEAN: Puka Nacua Over 92.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
I won’t be going with any props in this game, as I like the Rams and I can see plenty of players stepping up in this one. However, I will note that our WR-CB Matchup Tool looks pretty good for Nacua. His matchup with Maxwell Hairston is considered to be the biggest advantage at the receiver spot this week. This season, Hairston has a Pro Football Focus coverage grade of 42.9, which is miserable. The corner could be in for a long day against one of the league’s best — and most physical — receivers.
Bills vs. Rams Pick
I wish I got to this when it was -3, but it wasn’t meant to be. Instead, I’ll lay the 3.5 and put my trust in the Rams’ edge on defense being enough for Los Angeles to cover. Both offenses are flat-out scary for opposing defenses to cover, but I’m not sure the Buffalo defense even has a chance. LA’s might.
Bet: Rams -3.5 (+100)
