On Thursday, November 20, the Houston Texans, led by backup quarterback Davis Mills, host the Buffalo Bills for some Thursday Night Football. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 12 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Bills vs. Texans
When: Thursday, November 20 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas
Channel: Prime Video (Amazon)
Bills vs. Texans Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Tuesday, November 18. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Bills -265, Texans +215
Spread: Bills -5.5 (-115), Texans +5.5 (-105)
Total: Over 43.5 (-115), Under 43.5 (-105)
Bills vs. Texans Analysis
The Texans have won three of their last four games, plus they’ve won two in a row with Mills under center. C.J. Stroud is really going through it right now, as he’s in the concussion protocol and seems poised to miss his third straight game. Well, Mills comes into this one after having thrown for an average of 283.0 yards per game over the last two weeks. In the past, Mills has really looked like more of your average game-managing backup, but this version of the clipboard-holder is letting it fly. Houston, which has the league’s best defense in terms of EPA per play allowed (-0.119), now has a shot at winning any game. That said, the Texans will come into this Thursday showdown with some confidence.
Houston’s defense really should be able to hold up well in this matchup. The Texans are first in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.109) and fourth in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.137), so they’re in better shape than most when it comes to slowing down the Josh Allen train. Allen had one of the most absurd games imaginable last week, throwing for 317 yards with three touchdowns and also rushing for another 40 yards and three scores. Well, things won’t be as easy against Houston — even with the team being without Jalen Pitre. The Texans have an elite defensive line, with two top-notch pass-rushers in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. Those two should do a decent job of putting pressure on Allen, and Houston also has high-level corners that can cover for an extended period of time when Allen finds ways to extend plays.
The Texans should also be able to keep James Cook in check, which will cut into what offensive coordinator Joe Brady will be able to call. While this team is built on the back of Allen’s dual-threat ability, the running game is very important.
The question here is, can Houston score enough to stay within the number — or win this outright? All year long, the Texans offensive line has been absolutely miserable. And despite the fact that Mills has looked decent this season, it hurts losing Stroud. It should, however, help that the Bills are just 19th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.035) this season. This defense has not been as good as expected, and that’s especially true against the run. So, Houston might be able to get its ground game going, which hasn’t been the case all season. That would take some pressure off Mills.
Houston is also 6-3 against the spread as a home underdog under DeMeco Ryans, and the team is 5-4 straight-up in those games. The Texans are also 8-6 SU and 9-5 ATS under Ryans when facing teams with winning percentages between 60% and 75%. I’ll also note that Houston is 4-0 both SU and ATS when coming off back-to-back division games.
This is also a game in which the VSiN betting splits pages should be interesting. It’s never the worst idea in the world to fade a popular road favorite, and the Bills are definitely popular. As of Tuesday, 82% of the tickets in this game and 90% of the handle were on Buffalo.
Bills vs. Texans Player Props
Lean: Nick Chubb Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Woody Marks has been the go-to running back for Houston recently, but Ryans insists this is still a committee. Either way, I like the idea of zigging while others zag, taking Chubb to finish with at least 21 rushing yards against this mediocre Buffalo rushing defense. Chubb actually had at least 34 rushing yards in three consecutive games before finishing with only 17 against Tennessee last week. As long as he sees five or six carries in this one, he should really go Over this mark. Our OptaAI projections actually have Chubb going for 24.11 yards, which is a small edge to the Over. And for what it’s worth, Chubb is averaging 45.4 rushing yards per game at home this season.
Bills vs. Texans Pick
It’d be nice to be getting a full touchdown in this game, but I’ll take what I can get with the Texans. I think Houston’s defense will show up in this massive home game, and I like the Texans offense to move the ball against a below-average Bills defense. We have seen far too many shaky performances out of Buffalo to expect this group to go out and win by a touchdown or more in a tough road spot. Plus, this is a game in which everybody on the planet will be on the Bills. Things are never that easy.
Bet: Texans +6.5 (-120)
