Bills vs. Texans – Thursday Night Football Prop Best Bets from John Hansen:
This week’s Thursday Night Football game is a tough one to handicap with a multitude of receivers in the mix for both teams, and both defenses are tough to throw on. So I had to get a little weird to come up with 5 or more props that I like, and I like playing five or more props on Thursday Night Football
Woody Marks Over 64.5 rushing yards (-115, BETMGM)
The best matchup in this game is easily the Texans’ running game against a Bills defense that has given up the fifth-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.51) and the second-most rushing YPG (121.2). They also give up the seventh-fewest receiving YPG (25.9) to RBs, so Marks’ rushing should be highlighted in this one. Over the last five weeks, the Bills have given up the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to RBs in the running game only, and it’s worth a +4.8 FP boost to a team’s rushing production. The Bills have given up the third-most rushing yards on explosive runs with the fourth-highest explosive run percentage against them. They also give up the most forced missed tackles per attempt in the running game in the NFL at (.21). 57.6% of Marks’ runs have come on man/gap concepts, and Marks’ 3.81 YPC on those runs is 22.4% better than his YPC average on zone concept runs, and the Bills have been worse defending those runs vs. zone concept runs. Josh Allen was only 9-of-30 for 131 yards against the Texans last year, so the Texans have a solid chance to keep the game close enough for Marks to get 15+ carries.
Jayden Higgins Under 30.5 receiving yards (-109, DraftKings)
I like Higgins a lot as a prospect, but he is just 1 of 5 WRs who get snaps and targets for the Texans, and the Bills give up the 3rd-fewest FPG to WRs lined up on the right side, which is where Higgins lines up the most (45%). That’s mainly because of LCB Tre’Davious White, who has been targeted on only 7.6% of his routes covered, which is the third-fewest out of 96 CBs playing this week. His 0.16 FP/RR is the 3rd-fewest given up among all outside CBs this week, behind only A.J. Terrell and Joey Porter. Higgins is a threat to make a big play or two, but we should see this as a negative schematic matchup, and they should lean on their running game and a little more on veteran wideouts Nico Collins and Christian Kirk in this important and tough matchup.
Josh Allen Over 31.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings)
We’re projecting 6/34 rushing, which is obviously very close to this total, but Allen’s 34 yards projection is the third-highest QB rushing yardage projection on the board for us at Fantasy Points. It’s an extremely tough passing matchup for Allen, who was only
9-of-30 for 131 yards against the Texans last year, but he also had 4/54 rushing. And for what it’s worth, Allen, in his previous game against the Texans in 2021, rushed for 6/41. The Texans are well-equipped to slow down James Cook in the running game, as they give up the 2nd-lowest YPC on zone concept runs (3.41 YPC), which is a staple for Cook. Over the last five weeks, Houston has given up the 13th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to QBs in the running game (-0.1), and last week, Cam Ward had his best rushing game of the season with 3/33 rushing. In their previous three games, they gave up rushing production to Trevor Lawrence (5/35), Bo Nix (3/36), and even Mac Jones put up 2/23 rushing.
Ty Johnson Over 6.5 receiving yards (-110, BETMGM)
We’re projecting 11.95, which is 83.79% higher. The Texans give up the ninth-fewest receiving YPG (27.6) to RBs, but they’re also giving up the third-fewest rushing YPG (68.5) to the position, so this is a good week to mix it up and get Johnson some touches. Over the last three weeks, he’s seen 35% of their RB targets, and he’s hit 2 targets and 2 catches for 12+ yards in three straight, and he’s caught all six of his targets for 97 yards in that span. Josh Allen was only 9-of-30 for 131 yards against the Texans last year, and no Dalton Kincaid means one fewer receiving option for Allen near the line of scrimmage, plus WR Kahlil Shakir has been nursing an ankle injury. You can’t count on more than 2-3 targets, but Johnson has had long receptions of 61, 24, and 12 yards the last three weeks, and he’s hit this number in four of his last five games. In their last three games, the Texans gave up 7/35 receiving on eight targets to the Titans’ backs, 4/30 receiving to Jaguars backs, and 5/51/1 receiving to Denver’s RJ Harvey.
Davis Mills Over 8.5 rushing yards (-108, DraftKings)
I liked this more when it was 7.5 Wednesday night, but it’s a good sign it was bet up one yard. The Bills are giving up the 7th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to QBs in the running game, so this matchup is worth a +0.8 FP to a QB’s rushing production, and 0.8 FP could be eight yards. Mills has 2-3 rushing attempts in his four games this season, and in his last three, he has long runs of 10, 14, and 7 yards. Last week, Baker Mayfield went into this matchup with zero rushing attempts in his previous three games, but he ran for 5/39/1 against the Bills with a long of 13. We’re also projecting 12.3, which is a healthy 35% more than this line.
Dalton Schultz Under 4.5 receptions (-141, DraftKings)
The odds aren’t great, but that’s due in part to the fact that the Bills have been lights out against TEs all year. Schultz has been on fire, but last week, Cade Otton came into Buffalo coming off a 12-target game with 9/82 receiving, and he managed only 2/28 on five targets, despite the Bucs playing from behind most of the game. Over the last five weeks, the Bills give up the 2nd-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to TEs, and playing them has been worth -6.1 FP. I lost a couple of Schultz over props last year because their quality backup Cade Stover caught some balls, and Stover was back last week for the first time since Week 1, when he put up 4/22 on 4 targets, so with a game under his belt last week, he could catch 1-2 balls and take away from Schultz. I also think Nico Collins will be a little busier than usual in this Thursday Night Football matchup, as #1 WRs have hit the Bills hard lately (Drake London, Jaylen Waddle, and Tet McMillan).
John Hansen is the creator of Fantasy Points. Built for bettors. Trusted by winners. Fantasy Points Data subscribers win more because they have access to the best information. Stop guessing. Start betting with confidence. Get started today with promo code VSIN2025.
