Average Joe Contest
For those in the Edge Boost/VSiN Average Joe Contest, a new quarter begins here in Week 11. For those who are not, what are you waiting for?! There are weekly prizes available, which I’ll get to in a second, but this is a really fun, FREE contest for you to test your handicapping prowess across college football and the NFL. The picks are in for the next round of games and there are some very interesting notes and nuggets with the NFL Picks Week 11 edition.
Back to joining the contest…it’s free. We cannot stress that enough. There are quarterly and weekly prizes still up for grabs, even though we are so far into the season. With the Edge Boost/VSiN Average Joe Contest, the weekly prize is $500, but you can make it look like $1,000 by having an Edge Boost account. Your prize gets deposited into one anyway, so why not be proactive and use the promo code VSiN to get started ahead of time?
See the Average Joe Contest Rules and decide if the contest is right for you, as we still have several weeks left of the NFL season and more than enough college football to be included in your selections.
NFL Picks Week 11
There are a lot of very good games on Sunday that have very split opinions. In a world where “fading the public” is often viewed as a good strategy, let’s see what the “public” is on here for the Average Joe Contest and see if going against the grain might be a good way to go about Week 11.
By the way, the consensus picks have been profitable in three of the last four weeks in this contest, but are down significantly for the season.
Getting a survey of what “Average Joes” are thinking on the NFL is always intriguing. Of course, you can also do that with our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and Circa NFL Betting Splits, but we’re here to look at what contest players are thinking.
Here are the most popular ATS Picks for Week 11:
Cowboys -3 (90%) at Raiders
We’ll have to wait until Monday night to see how the most popular Week 11 pick works out, as the Cowboys lay a field goal in Sin City against the Raiders. Usually visitors come to this town and leave as losers, but 90% of the Average Joe picks on the spread for this game believe that the dudes from Dallas will be a rare winner next to the neon lights.
The Raiders and Titans are the only teams entering Week 11 with more interceptions than touchdown passes. The Dallas defense isn’t very good, but the offense has scored on 47.4% of offensive possessions. Winning the turnover battle would mean extra opportunities to score and that’s usually a good way to cover a number.
Of the 495 picks on this spread, 444 are on the Cowboys.
Vikings -2.5 (88%) vs. Bears
The return of “Nine” McCarthy was enough to get a win over the Lions a couple of games ago, but not enough to beat the Ravens last week. I’ll be honest – this one surprises me. The Bears have won six of their last seven games. They did lose to Minnesota earlier this season in Ben Johnson’s debut, but the Vikings scored 21 points in the fourth quarter to spoil the party at Soldier Field.
Perhaps pickers are looking for regression out of the Bears, who have won four of those six games by 1, 1, 5, and 4 points. Still, it feels pretty lopsided, especially because the Vikings were far and away the most popular pick by volume.
Of the 722 picks on this game, the Vikings had 635 of them.
49ers -3 (87%) at Cardinals
In the Brock Purdy vs. Jacoby Brissett battle, the Average Joes have spoken and they have spoken loudly. As Kyler Murray shotguns Mountain Dew Code Red on the couch playing Call of Duty: Black Ops 7, Brissett is the starter for the Cardinals, at least for a few more weeks.
The Niners have navigated approximately one million injuries this season after enduring two million injuries last season. They did barely sneak by Arizona by a 16-15 count earlier this season at home, but Joes are undeterred, loading up on San Francisco in a potential bounce back spot after losing to the Rams.
Of the 458 picks on this game, 398 are on the 49ers.
Dolphins -2.5 (85%) vs. Commanders
A fourth challenger enters the ring this week with over 85% of the selections, as the Dolphins are a very popular pick in Madrid against the Commanders. Tuanigamanuolepola Donny Tagovailoa vs. Marcus Ardel Taulauniu Mariota is such a cool game, as both guys played at Saint Louis HS in Honolulu. Very awesome moment, especially for the great people of Hawaii.
The Commanders have not been popular in this contest lately. Last week, 94% of the picks were against them vs. the Lions and those picks were right in the 44-22 loss. We’ll see if the consensus is right in this one as well.
Of the 468 picks on this game, 400 were on the Dolphins.
Here are the three most popular totals of Week 11:
Like I’ve mentioned before, totals just are not very popular in this contest for one reason or another. But, we do have some extremely lopsided numbers here and none of them are surprises.
Chiefs/Broncos Under 45 (93%)
The best defense in the NFL will try to befuddle Patrick Mahomes, as the Broncos and Chiefs play a big game in the AFC West. If Denver can pull the upset, the Chiefs are effectively buried in the division, as they’d trail by 3.5 games and be behind in the tiebreaker race to both Denver and LA.
But, bettors are less worried about a side and more fixated on the total here, as Bo Nix seems like a pretty good QB to play an Under on given how his season has transpired. Let’s put it this way, there were 173 picks on this game and only 12 of them are on the Over.
Buccaneers/Bills Over 46 (90%)
The Bucs and Bills are playing in some adverse weather conditions to say the least, but that didn’t stop pickers from overwhelmingly siding with the Over. Of course, there were only 109 total picks on this game, but 98 of them took the Over. I have to be honest, I wonder if enough bettors even check the weather because we’re looking at 20 mph sustained winds and 35 mph gusts with a Bucs run defense that is among the best in the NFL.
Nevertheless, this Over got a lot of love and a lot of interest.
Bengals/Steelers Over 49 (86%)
Sticking with the Over theme, this one has an 85.8% advantage to 85.7% for Cowboys/Raiders Over. The Bengals and Steelers soared Over this total a few weeks back, as Cincinnati pulled off the win behind ageless wonder Joe Flacco. Pickers are looking for points in the rematch, which could be on a slippery and sloppy field with Pitt playing Notre Dame at Acrisure Stadium on Saturday.
Of the 177 picks on this one, 152 were on the Over.
See all of the pick counts, including college football, on the Average Joe Contest Betting Splits page.
