Average Joe Contest
Some weeks have bettors more confident than others. It would appear that this week in the Edge Boost/VSiN Average Joe Contest is one of the weeks that bettors are a bit befuddled by the NFL card. The consensus picks have usually been pretty strong opinions since I started looking at the contest splits, but this week is not like the others. Nevertheless, somebody will still win the $500 weekly prize and it could be you if you are in the contest with your NFL Picks Week 12 card!
It can’t be you if you are not in this FREE contest. Yes, it costs Free.99 to participate in the Edge Boost/VSiN Average Joe Contest and you can even double that weekly prize to $1,000 by having an existing Edge Boost account. Prize winners get their funds sent via Edge Boost anyway, whether they have one set up or our friends at EB do it for them. Just use the promo code VSiN and get set up.
Because of the weekly prizes, and another quarter left to go, there is still a lot of value in signing up. Peep the Average Joe Contest Rules and see what you think. Keep in mind, while this article focuses on the NFL, college football is part of this contest as well. The article just centers on the NFL because we get all the data as college football games are getting underway.
NFL Picks Week 12
The most popular picks had another down week last week, so if you preach the “Fade The Public” mentality, it’s time to put your FREE entry where your mouth is. This contest gives you the chance to do that if you can correctly pinpoint the sides and totals that will be the most popular.
Let’s look at those for this week.
Getting a survey of what “Average Joes” are thinking on the NFL is always intriguing. Of course, you can also do that with our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and Circa NFL Betting Splits, but we’re here to look at what contest players are thinking.
Here are the most popular ATS Picks for Week 12:
Lions -13 (87%) vs. Giants
If there’s one thing we know about the betting masses, it’s that laying prices is not uncommon. We have three big favorites this week in the NFL and the Lions are the one that seems to have stood out the most to the Joes. The Jameis Winston Experience continues for the Giants and they continue to be without Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo, as they will be for the remainder of the season.
The men of Motown do grade very well in a lot of metrics this season and they thumped a bad Commanders team before losing to the Eagles last time out. I have to say, with Thanksgiving looming, so a short-week Thursday game, and a big number, I’m a bit surprised to see Detroit so popular here. The Giants have only lost by 1, 18, 10, 4, and 7 in their last five games and that 18-point loss to the Eagles was the game where Skattebo’s ankle was facing the wrong way. Hard to focus on football after that.
Of the 417 picks on this game, 361 are on the Lions.
Chiefs -3 (83%) vs. Colts
I know it’s a different sport, but every.single.time. I write about the Chiefs, I think of Slap Shot when Reg Dunlop makes Denis Lemieux go to Joe McGrath’s office to find out who owns the Chiefs. Owwwwnzzzuh. Amazing I actually found a safe for work clip from that movie. There aren’t many.
Anyway, apparently Average Joes do not foresee the Colts owning the Chiefs this week, as KC is the second-most popular pick by percentage. Maybe this is the week that the clock strikes midnight and Daniel Jones’ glass slipper becomes a white New Balance. Gradual line movement in the market did take this down to 3, which I’m guessing was a big selling point for those who hit submit on Patrick Mahomes & Co.
This was the most popular game of the week by far with 786 selections and 649 of them on the Chiefs.
49ers -7 (76%) vs. Panthers
Three home favorites among the top picks. Huh. It seems as though the winner of the weekly prize probably won’t be decided until Monday Night Football given the popularity of this one. The 49ers got Brock Purdy back and he looked pretty good. Certainly this pick would have had an even bigger share of the selections had the 49ers been at 6.5, but a 7.5 did show up at DraftKings, so it does seem like 7 might be decent value.
We’ll see if this one comes through with Carolina a long way from home and the 49ers trying to keep pace in a crowded NFC West race.
Of the 442 picks on this game, 335 are on the 49ers.
Here are the three most popular totals of Week 12:
Relatively speaking, there aren’t a lot of contestants that use NFL totals to their advantage and even fewer that use college football totals. Spread betting seems to be a far more popular endeavor, but the totals that were among the top three picks last week went 2-1, with Bucs/Bills soaring Over the total and Chiefs/Broncos staying Under.
I made a jestful coming about three home favorites among the top picks. Well, guess what? We have three Overs to talk about here.
Jaguars/Cardinals Over 47.5 (86%)
Liam Coen is doing some good things in Jacksonville, though Trevor Lawrence isn’t always along for the ride. The Jags are one of five teams with a completion percentage under 60%. The others are the Bears, Vikings, Titans, and Browns, which is not esteemed company at all. Jacoby Brissett will start again for Arizona.
These two teams have scored on 38.3% and 39.2% of their possessions and rank 18th and 19th in red zone TD%. I can’t say that inspires a whole lot of confidence in points being scored, but maybe I’m just too cynical.
Of the 210 picks on this total, 181 are on the Over.
Patriots/Bengals Over 51 (83%)
We may simply be at the point where it doesn’t matter what number gets put on the board, bettors are going to back whichever offense is playing against Cincinnati. Those who wagered on the Over here may get the bonus of the return of Joe Burrow. We’ll have to wait and see, but Cincinnati’s defense is tracking as one of the worst of all-time. Opponents have scored on 49.5% of their possessions against Cincy.
The Patriots are substantially better at preventing points, but Burrow’s potential return coupled with the YOLO characteristic of Joe Flacco has Joes thinking that the Bengals can hold up their end of the bargain a bit here as well.
Of the 138 picks on this total, 114 are on the Over.
Giants/Lions Over 50 (83%)
IN JAMEIS WE TRUST! Or maybe in the Lions offense we trust. Either way, three games had a total of 50+ with this week’s lines and two of them made the most popular picks list on the Over. It certainly helps to have the indoor fast track at Ford Field for this one, given that it’s getting cold and dreary in a lot of places these days. That’s not a worry in the climate-controlled downtown venue.
Jameis is as likely to throw a couple of sick touchdown passes as he is to throw a couple of make-you-sick pick-sixes. He is the gift that could keep on giving for those wagering on points in this NFC showdown.
Of the 100 picks on this game, the math was easy with 83 on the Over.
See all of the pick counts, including college football, on the Average Joe Contest Betting Splits page.
