Average Joe Contest
A more conventional NFL week is in the cards, as Week 14 picks are in for the Edge Boost/VSiN Average Joe Contest. It’s a shame that the Cowboys and Lions played on Thursday because the Over would have been a very popular pick there and it cashed with ease. But, contest players still had no shortage of things to pick from with a full dance card on Sunday and a pretty good, at least on paper, Monday Nighter.
Even though there are only five weeks left of the NFL regular season, you can still win prizes in the Edge Boost/VSiN Average Joe Contest. Another quarter kicks off in Week 16, but we still have our $500 weekly prizes up for grabs. Winnings get deposited into an Edge Boost account and you can double your prize simply by signing up for one of those Edge Boost accounts. Consider it an Edge Boost boost, if you will.
I can’t believe I’ve typed all these words and haven’t told you the best part yet. This contest is FREE to join. As in $0. As in Free.99. As in it will cost you nothing to have a shot at winning a prize just for picking some college football and/or NFL games. Use the promo code VSiN to sign up for an Edge Boost account after you check out the Average Joe Contest Rules.
NFL Picks Week 14
As mentioned, college football is available, too, but picks don’t lock until Saturday morning PT, so the NFL is the only thing with lead time to talk about. Let’s look at the most popular NFL sides and totals for this week.
Getting a survey of what “Average Joes” are thinking on the NFL is always intriguing. Of course, you can also do that with our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and Circa NFL Betting Splits, but we’re here to look at what contest players are thinking.
Here are the most popular ATS Picks for Week 14:
Jets +3 (77%) vs. Dolphins
Hmmm. As two-time best-selling author Josh Appelbaum always says, beware the trendy dog. The Jets are very trendy this week as the most popular pick in a week where there are a lot of spread-out selections. I think this is the first week since I started tracking this that we haven’t had an ATS side with at least 80% of the consensus on that game. Maybe this week is just a little more perplexing than most.
Anyway, while people from the tri-state area often fly south for the winter, we get the opposite here, as the Dolphins fly north. Since the 2010 season, Miami is 12-18 SU and 13-17 ATS in road games in the month of December. Obviously not all of those will be cold-weather contests. If we look at a tighter window dating back to 2020, the Dolphins are 4-5 SU and ATS in road December games. Not many of those have been cold-weather games, but they did beat the sad and hapless Browns 20-3 last year in Week 17.
Of the 485 picks on this game, 373 are on the Jets. The Dolphins were the second-most popular pick last week and failed to cover -5.
Rams -8 (75%) vs. Cardinals
This is more like what we’re usually seeing out of the Average Joes in this contest. A road team laying a touchdown or more against a really bad opponent. The Rams are also off of a loss, so they should be a motivated and irritated team taking on an NFC West rival. We’ll see this game again, as the total is also one of the most popular picks of the contest for Week 14.
The Rams have been popular a lot in this contest and with good reason, as many believe that they are the best team in the conference, despite last week’s setback. Matthew Stafford probably won’t turn the ball over again three times this week, but the beauty of the NFL is that you never know. Well, unless you are one of the scriptwriters.
Of the 354 picks on this game, 265 are on the Rams.
Jaguars +2 (73%) vs. Colts
This was a very popular game and has the highest pick count by volume on the Jaguars. There are 468 selections on Jacksonville with more than 600 picks on this game. The closest split belongs to Seahawks/Falcons with 285 on the dog and 274 on the favorite. This is a pretty big gap, but this battle for first place in the AFC South has drawn a lot of attention.
The shine seems to be coming off of Daniel Jones, something that bettors have been preying on for a while. It doesn’t help that he’s playing with a fractured fibula. With the Jaguars playing at a pretty high level for first-year head coach Liam Coen, Joes are on the Jags in Duuuuuuuuuval County this week.
Of the 644 picks on this game, 468 are on the Jaguars.
Here are the three most popular totals of Week 14:
Side picks heavily outweighed totals picks again this week, which is basically the story each and every week. Like I said, it surprises me a little bit, given how we all agree that the NFL is the tightest and most efficient betting market of any sport, and yet people still line up to bet into sides instead of totals. I guess it’s easier to feel confident in a team or a matchup than it is a combined point total.
Rams/Cardinals Over 47.5 (94%)
This isn’t the biggest by pick count and, in fact, the next two are higher by volume, but this was the most lopsided totals selection of Week 14. So much so that only 10 contestants are on the Under for this one. There’s probably some correlation here in that Average Joes are expecting a bounce back effort from Stafford and that would correlate nicely with the Rams covering -8.
Also, Jacoby Brissett has been putting up some nice yardage totals in losing efforts and garbage time could be the game state in the second half. It’s hard to argue, but the Rams also grade very well on defense and a lot of that has to do with Stafford taking care of the ball and the team winning the field position battle.
Of the 168 picks on this game, 158 are on the Over.
Texans/Chiefs Under 42 (91%)
It will be bitter cold at Arrowhead this week, so tailgaters are going to have to dress in layers before this Sunday Night Football affair. For those who have never been to Arrowhead or Kauffman Stadium, the two venues are side-by-side surrounded by a parking lot the size of the Pacific Ocean. There is ample tailgating space, but also not much of anything to cut down the brunt of the wind.
Anyway, the Texans defense is spectacular and the Chiefs offense has been mid at times. Houston’s offense has been mid at most times. This is an extremely lopsided totals selection as well and one that’s hard to argue.
Of the 269 picks on this game, 245 are on the Under.
Bengals/Bills Over 52.5 (90%)
The least shocking consensus pick of the week and maybe of the season is the Over on this game. Joe Burrow and Josh Allen going up against two porous defenses. The Buffalo defense is a huge worry for a team that was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender. The Bengals defense was on a worst-ever kind of trendline until somehow shutting down the Ravens on Thanksgiving.
It would seem that Joes believe a regression to their embarrassing mean is coming for that Bengals defensive corps and I would have laid up to -10000000000 that this would be one of the three most popular totals of the week.
Of the 350 picks on this game, 315 are on the Over.
See all of the pick counts, including college football, on the Average Joe Contest Betting Splits page.
