Average Joe Contest
Four weeks remain in the NFL regular season, but we’ll be taking the Edge Boost/VSiN Average Joe Contest through January 16, so we’ll have 20 weeks worth of picks. And if you’re not in the contest, I would highly encourage you to sign up for next week. The fourth and final quarter begins with Week 16, so you can make yourself eligible for the last quarterly prize.
With $500 weekly prizes that you can bump to $1,000 by having an Edge Boost account with the promo code VSiN, there’s still time to enter and still time to test your skills against the rest of the Average Joes. Oh, yeah, and the Edge Boost/VSiN Average Joe Contest is FREE to enter. FREE. It will cost $0.00 to take your chances at winning a prize. What could be better than that?
Check out the Average Joe Contest Rules and set yourself a reminder to sign up before the Week 16 pick deadline. For now, let’s check out the Week 15 picks and see what was most popular.
NFL Picks Week 15
With several double-digit favorites and a lot of cold-weather games, I was really interested in seeing how things would shake out this week. As it turns out, narratives are very strong and the big favorites and the cold weather did exactly what I expected.
Getting a survey of what “Average Joes” are thinking on the NFL is always intriguing. Of course, you can also do that with our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and Circa NFL Betting Splits, but we’re here to look at what contest players are thinking.
Here are the most popular ATS Picks for Week 15:
49ers -12.5 (81%) vs. Titans
We’ve got the first of two big favorites showing a big consensus number. We didn’t have a single pick over 80% last week, but we have one this week with the heavily-favored 49ers hosting the hapless Titans. Tennessee is just playing out the string and San Francisco is playing for a lot in the NFC West. With Brock Purdy back, it seems as though Average Joes feel like San Fran is set to go on a bit of a run.
It is a long trip to Cali for the Titans and it’s been chilly in Nashville, so maybe this will be viewed as more of a vacation than a business trip for Tennessee, as they’ve got four games left to go with an interim head coach and a lot of offseason changes on the horizon.
Of the 270 picks on this game, 220 took the 49ers.
Seahawks -13.5 (80%) vs. Colts
Imagine Philip Rivers playing quarterback in a game during the 2025 season. Now imagine how you would attack that from a betting standpoint. Well, as it turns out, the Average Joes are looking to fade a guy who may very well have morphed into an Average Joe after not playing an NFL game since 2020. And it sure seems like chasing around his 22 children didn’t keep him in shape.
I will say that there is a modest element of the unknown with Rivers, who could end up looking somewhat competent with what seems to be a strong offensive system under Shane Steichen. After all, Daniel Jones was having a magical resurgence until injuries derailed his special season. Nevertheless, the expectation here is for a blowout and it’s hard to think anything otherwise. Rivers also comes back for a sloppy weather game, as more rain is expected for Seattle, even though it has rained buckets for days all week long.
Of the 402 picks on this game, 322 took the Seahawks.
Giants -2.5 (76%) vs. Commanders
A 2-11 team winds up in the top consensus selections here this week, which seems to say a lot about the Commanders, who are taking their 3-10 record to the Meadowlands. Jayden Daniels looked terrible in his return last week against the Vikings and will be out again this week, as Marcus Mariota takes back over. It does seem like the injury to Zach Ertz last week is one that could linger over the locker room. What has happened in the standings is bad enough, but seeing Ertz’s career end like that was devastating.
The Giants are also off of a bye here for interim head coach Mike Kafka and a late bye and a little bit of a renewed sense of purpose could certainly help the G-Men. At least that’s what Average Joes are hoping for.
Of the 308 picks on this game, 235 are on the Giants.
Here are the three most popular totals of Week 15:
Totals remained a lot less popular than sides, but the ones that did get some pretty big splits had some very popular pick counts. As is often the case, none of the ones in this section are surprising.
Cardinals/Texans Under 42.5 (88%)
The Texans and Unders are popular wagers these days. That’s the case here, as Houston was a 57% side against Arizona, but the Under was the most popular of any on the card for this week. That’s not a new development at all. Houston’s defense has been spectacular all season long and it should continue against a Cardinals crew still rolling with Jacoby Brissett.
The worry that I would have in this one is Houston’s offense coming alive against a below-average Cardinals defense. Last week made sense with a Chiefs team in the top 10 in scoring defense. The Cardinals are 26th in scoring defense, allowing nearly 27 PPG. Certainly there’s a path to Houston getting to around 27 points and this one still staying Under because of their defense.
Of the 126 picks on this game, 111 are on the Under.
Browns/Bears Under 39 (86%)
Shedeur Sanders had a monster game for the Browns last week, but they still lost 31-29. A 29-point outburst is rarely the norm for a team that nearly went an entire calendar season without scoring at least 20 points. Bitter cold conditions are also a factor in this game, something that Sanders contended with a little bit at Colorado, but not something that USC QB Caleb Williams has embraced very often.
The Browns could also be missing their entire offensive line due to injury and Myles Garrett is a one-man wrecking crew on their defensive line, so it isn’t hard to see why Joes are expecting a rock fight in this game.
Of the 236 picks on this game, 204 are on the Under.
Packers/Broncos Under 42.5 (84%), Vikings/Cowboys Over 47.5 (84%)
These two games are tied for the next spot, as well as Panthers/Saints Over 40.5, but that game only had 63 total picks and 53 on the Over. At least these two games had more than 100 selections on the heavier side of the total.
Once again, neither one is a surprise. Broncos Unders haven’t been quite as popular as Texans Unders, but they’ve been close. Cowboys Overs have been an auto pick pretty much every week for Joes and probably for bettors across the industry. Ironically, while it will be cold in a lot of places, it will be in the 60s and sunny for Packers/Broncos, so that one does scare me a tad, even if both defenses have great metrics.
Of the 125 picks on Packers/Broncos, 105 are on the Under.
Of the 120 picks on Vikings/Cowboys, 101 are on the Over.
See all of the pick counts, including college football, on the Average Joe Contest Betting Splits page.
