Average Joe Contest
The NFL regular season wraps up this week, but the Edge Boost/VSiN Average Joe Contest does not. The contest has 20 weeks and this is Week 18, so we’ll have some NFL playoff action and the remaining College Football Playoff matchups as part of the contest. This week has a lot of moving parts and contestants have had to account for them. The playoff scenarios chief among them, as the two Saturday games saw 57/43 (Bucs) and 59/41 (49ers) splits. That means that the most lopsided games were all on Sunday.
There is still time to join this weekly contest and it’s free. Showing up late to the party is better than not showing up at all and you can win $500 just by making some picks. Double that up to $1,000 if you sign up with the promo code VSiN over at Edge Boost. It has been a very fun and successful first year of the contest and we hope you have enjoyed it as much as I do. If you haven’t signed up to enjoy it yet, give it a try next week.
As we look at Week 18 in the Edge Boost/VSiN Average Joe Contest, we have some big splits on sides this week after not having a single pick with more than 79% of the selections.
NFL Picks Week 18
It’s been a week full of line adjustments and there are some games that could turn on a dime at halftime or so depending on what’s happening in other games, so it was a tough week and there are a lot of potential landmines. But, contestants seemed very confident in these games.
Getting a survey of what “Average Joes” are thinking on the NFL is always intriguing. Of course, you can also do that with our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and Circa NFL Betting Splits, but we’re here to look at what contest players are thinking.
Here are the most popular ATS Picks for Week 18:
Bills -8 (82%) vs. Jets
One final opportunity to fade the Jets. Contestants and bettors have done very well going against Aaron Glenn and the Gang Green, which has been more like gangrene this season. Something nobody wants a part of. Josh Allen will start, but we’ll see how long he actually goes in this game. Him and the other starters have bigger fish to fry next week.
But, the Jets are rolling out Brady Cook yet again and they don’t have anything to play for except a better draft pick and a crack at a franchise QB. Hard to expect them to show up at all, especially being unable to play spoiler against a hated rival.
Of the 224 picks on this game, 184 are on the Bills.
Vikings -8 (81%) vs. Packers
Crazy 8s this week for the contestants, as we’ve got back-to-back -8s as the most popular plays. With the Packers sitting a bunch of players and starting Clayton Tune, you can’t fault contestants for expecting a pretty lifeless effort from a Green Bay team locked into the No. 7 seed.
The Vikings are vying for a winning season against all odds, so they are playing for something here. It’s also a continuation of what we’ve seen throughout the season from Joes. Favorites of a touchdown or higher usually end up being part of the consensus. In fact, the top four sides this week are 8, 8, 8.5, and 7.5. It’s not an exception because of the nature of Week 18. It’s just the norm.
Of the 314 picks on this game, 254 are on the Vikings.
Rams -8.5 (77%) vs. Cardinals
One more chance to fade the Cardinals as well. We’ve seen contestants pick on Arizona all season long and that remains the case here in Week 18. It’s a bit of a risky spot because the Rams may not have anything to play for on Sunday. LA needs a Seahawks win over the 49ers to have a shot at the No. 5 seed and a matchup with the NFC South champ as opposed to a much tougher opponent in the 3 vs. 6 game.
Sean McVay is playing his starters, but obviously they may not play the full game. Jimmy Garoppolo is certainly a capable backup if it does come to that, and Average Joes have been picking on this defense all season long.
Of the 270 picks on this game, 208 are on the Rams.
Here are the three most popular totals of Week 18:
Of all the learnings from this contest, one of the biggest to me is that average bettors don’t really like to play NFL totals. Sides have been so much more popular and that’s the case yet again this week.
Cardinals/Rams Over 46.5 (90%)
As mentioned, going against Arizona’s defense has been like clockwork in this contest. Overs in Cardinals games have been in the consensus week after week after week. Even with those concerns with the Rams and how invested they’ll be throughout the course of the game, contestants are unfazed.
Of the 103 picks on this game, 93 are on the Over.
Chargers/Broncos Under 37.5 (84%)
Another trend of late has been Broncos Unders as part of the most popular picks. That’s the case again here with the Chargers and Broncos, who played a 23-20 game all the way back in Week 3. The weather won’t really be a factor, so this simply appears to be a play on Denver’s defense and a play against the Chargers offense led by Trey Lance, with Justin Herbert sitting out to prep for the playoffs.
Of the 104 picks on this game, 87 are on the Over.
Colts/Texans Under 38.5 (83%)
Another trend of late has been Texans Unders as part of the most popular picks. At this point, Houston Unders are just a broken record and it’s hard to argue with how spectacular that defense is and has been for a while now. This is one where Houston may end up sitting CJ Stroud and others if the Jaguars are crushing the Titans and the AFC South looks to be wrapped up. Not sure if contestants considered that or not, given the lather, rinse, repeat nature of the Texans and Under showing up here.
Of the 89 picks on this game, 74 are on the Over.
See all of the pick counts, including college football, on the Average Joe Contest Betting Splits page.
