Average Joe Contest
November is here and so is Week 9 in the Edge Boost/VSiN Average Joe Contest. We’re at the midpoint of the 18-week season and have found out a lot about these teams, including a lot of things that we didn’t necessarily want to find out. Consensus plays in this contest have really struggled, though they have been in the black each of the last two weeks. There are actually eight selections with over 80% popularity for the NFL Picks Week 9 edition of “The Joe”.
Even though the season is half over after this week, you still have plenty of time to join the Edge Boost/VSiN Average Joe Contest. Weekly and quarterly prizes are available, with the next quarter beginning in Week 11. That doesn’t mean you should wait until Week 11. It means you should join for Week 10 and attempt to get the $500 weekly prize. See the Average Joe Contest Rules here.
And, hey, if you have an Edge Boost account, your $500 weekly prize automatically doubles to $1,000. Given that the prize is deposited into an Edge Boost account to begin with, you might as well get out in front of it and not cost yourself $500 if you win the week. You know, put the “boost” in Edge Boost. Sign up with the promo code VSiN and see what they’re all about.
NFL Picks Week 9
As I said, we actually had eight selections with over 80% of the picks on that game. I’m still only going to go in detail on the top three, but will list the others as honorable mentions. I will say that this week’s picks are CHALKY. Like Chalky Studebaker. Or eating a whole bottle of Tums. Or that giant plastic tub of sidewalk chalk. Let’s hopscotch our way through the favorites and Overs.
Getting a survey of what “Average Joes” are thinking on the NFL is always intriguing. Of course, you can also do that with our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and Circa NFL Betting Splits, but we’re here to look at what contest players are thinking.
Here are the three most popular ATS Picks for Week 9:
Lions -8.5 (93%) vs. Vikings
We start in the Motor City, where the post-bye Lions take on the JJ McCarthy-led Vikings. This will be the 2024 first-round pick’s first start since Week 2. In his two starts, he’s 24-of-41 passing with a 2/3 TD/INT ratio. When the right number is bigger than the left number, that’s not great. He’s also been sacked nine times in two games.
DC Brian Flores isn’t getting as much out of his side of the ball either, as the Vikings, who were tied for fourth with 49 sacks last season, only have 18 thus far. They have also forced only eight takeaways and five of them are fumble recoveries. And this game is indoors at Ford Field, where Jared Goff’s small hands seemingly are not a problem.
Of the 733 picks on this game, 681 of them are on the Lions.
Cowboys -2 (91%) vs. Cardinals
The Big D is kind of the little d on defense this season, but Joes are undeterred because the offense continues to hum right along. Only the Bears and Bengals have allowed more yards per play. The Cardinals are actually ninth in the NFL in YPP allowed. But, these two teams are a complete 180 on the other side of the ball, as Dallas is third in offensive YPP and Arizona is 28th. What’s crazy is that the new Call of Duty game isn’t even out yet, so Kyler Murray has no excuse.
It hasn’t all been Kyler’s fault. Marvin Harrison Jr. has more drops than an aspiring country artist on TikTok and James Conner probably needed a 3D-printed ankle surgically placed into his body to replace the one that was facing the wrong way in Week 3. Jacoby Brissett actually gets the nod again this week and Dallas is 2-0-1 at home, so contestants were more than willing to lay the short number.
Of the 669 picks on this Monday Night Football game, 611 are on America’s Team. (Do we still call them that?)
49ers -2.5 (84%) vs. Giants
I think we all assumed that a concussion or early-onset CTE would get Cam Skattebo before anything else, but on the subject of lower extremities facing in the wrong direction, the right-hand man for rookie QB Jaxson Dart will have to wait until next season to play football. With Malik Nabers already sidelined, contestants were willing to back the banged-up boys from Santa Clara.
San Francisco is no stranger to injuries, as the last two years have been full of them. Mac Jones, Brock Purdy, it almost doesn’t matter because we just assume that Kyle Shanahan’s team will be ready to go and they’ll find enough able bodies to compete. It’s an early kickoff, even as we fall back this week, getting this one under a key number was a key selling point.
Of the 504 picks on this game, 424 of them are on the 49ers.
Honorable Mentions
Colts -3 (83%) vs. Steelers: This was the most popular side of the week by volume with 734 picks to Pittsburgh’s 152.
Rams -14 (83%) vs. Saints: Like I said, so much chalk it’ll clear out your indigestion symptoms. This was only a count of 193 of 233, though. But, still, a high percentage willing to lay two touchdowns against Tyler “Aw” Shough(s).
Chargers -9.5 (82%) vs. Titans: The poor Titans. Even getting nearly double digits at home, nobody wants to take them. The Chargers have 249 of the 301 picks in this one..
Here are the three most popular totals of Week 9:
The top totals went 3-0 last week, as the sides had another losing week. We do have a significantly smaller amount of picks on totals on a weekly basis, so these aren’t as telling, but interesting nonetheless.
Cardinals/Cowboys Over 53 (95%)
Shockingly, after the Cowboys and Broncos obliterated the total last week as the most popular pick, contestants are right back on it this week. A whopping 95% of the exactly 300 picks on this game are looking for points. And, as mentioned above, the Cowboys were one of the most popular sides.
Dallas played an easy Over two weeks ago against the Commanders as well. While the yards per play numbers stink for Arizona, they have scored on over 40% of their possessions and Dallas has scored on 50% of theirs.
Like I said, 286 of the 300 picks on this total are on the Over.
Bears/Bengals Over 51 (87%)
Another spot where contestants are overwhelmingly rooting for points. To put it nicely, the Bengals defense is more ass than a bad BBL. However, the Bears have actually allowed the most yards per play in the NFL. They just have 16 takeaways to lead the league, or they’d be doing much worse as a scoring defense. They’ve turned opponents over on more than 21% of their possessions.
That’s an outlier and one that will go down. I am a bit surprised to see such a strong stance here given that Joe Flacco has a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder, but that didn’t seem to really matter to contestants.
Of the 209 picks on this total, 182 of them are on the Over.
Colts/Steelers Over 50.5 (85%)
Would it shock you to know that the consensus is all favorites and Overs this week? Nahhhhh. The “fade the public” strategy usually means going contrarian with a lot of the same opposing bets that would be required off of this list.
The Colts have scored at least 29 points in each of their seven wins. The Steelers have played a couple of back-to-back 60-point affairs. There are no weather worries in the Steel City and, in fact, it will be sunny and 60, which is as good as it gets for early November.
Of the 131 picks on this total, 111 are on the Over.
See all of the pick counts, including college football, on the Average Joe Contest Betting Splits page.
