In the second of three Saturday games in Week 17 of the 2024 NFL season, the Cincinnati Bengals host the Denver Broncos at Paycor Stadium. We’ll continue diving into all of the stand-alone games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 17 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.

MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!

 

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How To Watch Broncos vs. Bengals

When: Saturday, December 28th at 4:30 pm ET

Where: Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio

Channel: NFL Network

Broncos vs. Bengals Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, December 27th. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Bengals -175, Broncos +145

Spread: Bengals -3.5 (+100), Broncos +3.5 (-120)

Total: Over 50 (-108), Under 50 (-112)

Broncos vs. Bengals Analysis

Our VSiN DraftKings betting splits and Circa betting splits pages show that everybody wants to bet Joe Burrow and the Bengals here. It also looks like most of the money is coming in on the Over at both books. Realistically, none of that is surprising. Burrow has been torching opposing defenses all year, and this is the final push for Cincinnati to make the postseason. The Bengals need a lot of help in order to steal a spot, but winning this game is a must. But despite all of that, I’m rolling with the Broncos.

It just feels like we shouldn’t be able to get Denver +3.5 here. While the Bengals have looked a little better lately, the Broncos have been the stronger team the entire season. And that’s because of an elite defense. This season, Denver is first in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.114), and the team is also first in the league in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.086). With that in mind, if anybody can come up with some key stops against Burrow and this electric Cincinnati passing game, it’s Patrick Surtain II and Co. That’s not to say that the Broncos will completely shut down the Bengals. I’m not sure that’s even possible. But in a back-and-forth game that should be high in scoring, Denver’s defense has a better chance of getting off the field.

Bo Nix obviously isn’t as good as Burrow, but the rookie has been good this season. He’s fully capable of making a ton of plays against a Cincinnati team that is just 20th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.086). And that’s especially true considering Denver will very likely set up manageable situations via the running game. Only three teams in the NFL have a worse Rush EPA per play allowed (0.013) than the Bengals.

I understand how scary it can be to go against a Burrow team, but you should feel just as good about backing a Sean Payton team against a bad defense. Under Payton, the Broncos are 7-3 against the spread as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points. They’re also 9-3 straight-up and 8-3-1 ATS when facing teams with losing records. He’s going to look at the film and see all the different ways he can take advantage of this miserable Cincinnati defense. Then, Denver will spam what works.

For total bettors, I do like the Over in this one. The Over is 8-3-1 in the 12 games Denver has played against teams with losing records under Payton. The Broncos really should be able to score against the Bengals. But Burrow and Co. will also get theirs. I just feel better about Denver than I do the Over.

Broncos vs. Bengals Player Props

Bo Nix Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Nix has thrown for at least 231 yards in four of his last five games. It genuinely feels like this number has been priced too low all season, and nothing has changed heading into a meeting with one of the softest defenses in the NFL. If Burrow has anything close to the success that the public believes he’ll have in this game, Nix will be forced to air it out all game. So, I don’t see any reason not to play Nix to go Over his passing yards prop. And it might even be worth laddering this up to 275 or 300.

Broncos vs. Bengals Pick

I think Denver is going to win this game outright, but I’ll take the 3.5 points as Burrow insurance. However, if this moves at all and gets to a point where you aren’t getting a field goal, just jump on the Broncos moneyline. I’d be surprised if Denver doesn’t win this game. Both offenses can move the ball, but only one of these defenses can be trusted. I’m also taking the Nix player prop. Check out my Week 17 best bets for how I’m distributing the units.

Bet: Broncos +3.5 (-115) & Nix Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-113)

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