On Sunday, January 12th, the Buffalo Bills host the Denver Broncos for some Wild Card Weekend action at Highmark Stadium. VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke and I will provide in-depth previews of all of the NFL postseason games, so now is a great time to take advantage of our special and grab a VSiN Pro subscription. Not only will we have all sorts of written content over the next few weeks, but our live programming will be hitting on these games regularly throughout the playoffs. Bookmark our Wild Card Weekend NFL Betting Hub for all of our NFL betting content.

MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!

 

***Top NFL Resources***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*

How To Watch Broncos vs. Bills

When: Sunday, January 12th at 1:00 pm ET

Where: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York

Channel: CBS / Paramount+

Broncos vs. Bills Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday, January 9th. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Bills -440, Broncos +340

Spread: Bills -8.5 (-112), Broncos +8.5 (-108)

Total: Over 46.5 (-115), Under 46.5 (-105)

Broncos vs. Bills Analysis

On the Broncos vs. Bills VSiN matchup page, Steve Makinen has an estimated line of Buffalo -6.2 for this game. Also, our DraftKings betting splits page shows public support for the home team. With that in mind, there’s some important raw numbers that suggest backing Denver is the right call here, and you’re also getting the opportunity to fade a heavy public favorite. With that in mind, it’s hard not to lean towards taking the Broncos with the points.

When looking at this matchup, you have to realize that the Denver defense is special. This Broncos defense is first in the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.100), first in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.061) and fourth in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.176). No matter how defenses want to attack Denver, the Broncos are capable of making plays and getting off the field. That said, while it’s very difficult to actually slow down Josh Allen, James Cook and the rest of this Bills offense, Vance Joseph’s group is as well equipped as any team in football to do so. And as long as the Broncos are able to prevent Joe Brady’s offense from exploding, you’d think they’d be able to hang within this big of a number. In fact, under head coach Sean Payton, Denver is 7-3 against the spread as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

Speaking of Payton, it’s hard not to trust him to come up with a strong offensive gameplan here. And that’s especially true with Buffalo being somewhat shaky in the secondary. This is surely going to be a difficult road environment for Bo Nix, who is a rookie playing in his first NFL postseason game. But this is where Nix’s age and maturity should come in handy. He has played a lot of big games in his career, so he should be able to rise to the occasion. Nix did deliver in some big spots this season, including a road game against Kansas City on November 10th in which he put his team in a great position to win. Of course, the Chiefs ended up blocking the Broncos’ game-winning field goal attempt, but that has nothing to do with Nix. He proved he’s capable of making Denver competitive against the best teams in the NFL.

Another trend that’s worth pointing out here is that Denver is 3-1 ATS versus teams with winning percentages of 75.0% or higher under Payton. The Broncos have shown up against elite teams with Payton on the sidelines. And I believe he’s a better coach than Sean McDermott. We actually saw Payton out-coach McDermott in a 24-22 win in Orchard Park last season.

If you’re interested in the total, I do have a tiny lean on the Under. While these are two teams that can make explosive plays, these are also some great defenses. Plus, this game will be played in cold and windy conditions. The Under is also 28-24-2 in Buffalo’s meetings with winning teams under McDermott. It’s also 4-0 when Denver takes on teams with winning percentages of 75.0% or higher under Payton.

Broncos vs. Bills Player Props

Bo Nix Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Nix isn’t as good of a runner as Allen, but the rookie does have a good set of wheels. And in the final two weeks of the regular season, Nix rushed 14 times for 78 yards. It just feels like Nix trusts his legs in big games, so it’s hard to see him passing on tucking the ball and running in this one. Nix is somewhat similar to fellow rookie Drake Maye in that he’s a pocket passer that happens to be able to run. So, it might be worth pointing out that Maye did rush six times for 30 yards when he took on Buffalo on December 22nd.

Broncos vs. Bills Pick

While I have a strong lean on the Broncos, I will note that my official play here is an alternate parlay of Denver +15.5 and Tampa Bay +4.5 for Sunday. I found that at -122 at FanDuel, and it’s a two-unit play for me. I looked into teaser options with the two games, but I ended up getting more points and better odds to go the parlay route. However, if you’re not interested in that, take the points with Denver. Getting 9 is still a great option. And Makinen did have a great trend for this game in his NFL Playoffs trends piece. Home favorites of 7 to 9.5 points are 12-25-1 ATS in the playoffs since 2011.

Lean: Broncos +9 (-110)

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR