In the third of three Christmas Day matchups in Week 17 of the 2025 NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. We’ll continue diving into all of the stand-alone games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 17 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Broncos vs. Chiefs
When: Thursday, December 25th at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
Channel: Prime Video (Amazon)
Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, December 23rd. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Broncos -1100, Chiefs +700
Spread: Broncos -13.5 (-108), Chiefs +13.5 (-112)
Total: Over 36.5 (-108), Under 36.5 (-112)
Broncos vs. Chiefs Analysis
It’s wild to see the Chiefs as two-touchdown underdogs at home, but it’s also completely justified. Kansas City was eliminated from playoff contention two weeks ago, so this is a team that doesn’t have anything to play for. But even if the Chiefs did have an incentive to win, they wouldn’t have a quarterback to help them do it. Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL in a loss to the Chargers in Week 15, then backup Gardner Minshew suffered his own knee injury in last week’s loss to the Titans. Kansas City is now relying on third-stringer Chris Oladokun, a 2022 seventh-round pick that played his final year of college at South Dakota State.
Oladokun actually came in and completed 11 of his 16 passes for 111 yards last week, and he looked surprisingly competent in his limited time on the field. However, playing against Tennessee in mop-up duty will be different than going against a strong Denver defense. The Broncos are 10th in the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.030), and they have the fifth-best Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.111). That means the Chiefs likely won’t be able to make things easier on Oladokun by softening up the defense with a productive running game. And when Oladokun drops back to throw in long-yardage situations, he’ll be working against a secondary that features shutdown corner Patrick Surtain II.
Offensively, Bo Nix should be due for a big week. Prop Points host John Hansen likes to point out how Nix loves facing man coverage, and Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is based in that. Add in the fact that Nix and Courtland Sutton have been in a nice little groove together and it isn’t hard to imagine this being a big game for the duo — especially against a defense that might fold rather quickly if things start off poorly.
It’s also highly likely that Kansas City will be getting a very focused Denver team. The Broncos are coming off a bad home loss to the Jaguars, and they’re right in the thick of the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They can’t afford to come out and lay an egg with an opportunity like this.
Denver is also 2-0 against the spread as a favorite of 10 or more points under Sean Payton. On top of that, Kansas City is 4-6 ATS as a home underdog with Andy Reid on the sidelines.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Player Props
Lean: Courtland Sutton Anytime TD (+175)
I mentioned that Nix and Sutton have been clicking lately, but that might have been underselling it. Sutton comes into this game having snagged a touchdown in three of the last four. He’s also averaging 99.5 yards per game over the last two contests, and Nix has targeted him at least 10 times in three consecutive games. It can sometimes feel like Sutton is a decoy in this Denver offense, but that hasn’t been the case lately. He’s fully operating as a true No. 1 wideout again, making him an enticing play to find the end zone at +175 odds. As previously mentioned, the Chiefs play a lot of man coverage. Well, down by the red zone, it’s hard to cover Sutton on an island. He has a big body and knows how to use it to come down with contested catches.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Pick
I’m completely staying away from this game, but I’d be laying the points if I had to take anything. I don’t see Kansas City doing much offensively against Denver. This quarterback situation is ugly for the Chiefs. I also think there’s a chance Payton runs it up here. He loves kicking people when they’re down.
Lean: Broncos -13 (-109)
