On Sunday, November 30, the Washington Commanders host the Denver Broncos in a Week 13 Sunday Night Football showdown. We’re diving into all of the primetime NFL games this season and this one is no different. So keep reading for a Broncos vs. Commanders betting preview. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 13 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Broncos vs. Commanders
When: Sunday, November 30 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland
Channel: NBC
Broncos vs. Commanders Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, November 28. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Broncos -270, Commanders +220
Spread: Broncos -5.5 (-120), Commanders +5.5 (+100)
Total: Over 43.5 (-105), Under 43.5 (-115)
Broncos vs. Commanders Analysis
With Washington coming off a bye week — and Denver flirting with disaster seemingly every time the team wins — there will be a good amount of smart bettors on the home team, even with Jayden Daniels set to miss this Sunday Night Football showdown for the Commanders. However, I’m having a hard time turning down the Broncos.
While Washington hasn’t played since November 16, head coach Dan Quinn is just 2-4 against the spread when playing with two or more weeks of rest. The Commanders were also on a six-game losing streak heading into the bye, and they lost four of those six games by double digits. This is just a miserable football team right now, and Quinn’s defense is a big part of the reason. The Commanders are currently 30th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.143), and they’ve been lousy against both the run and the pass. Well, these are the defenses Sean Payton’s teams tend to pound. Denver is 5-0 ATS when facing defenses that allow at least 375.0 yards per game under Payton, and the Broncos have won those games by an average of 15.8 points per game.
Washington actually does have one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league, as Marcus Mariota is currently a top-10 quarterback when looking at qualified players at the position at Pro Football Focus. He grades out at 79.8 as a passer, which is the seventh-best mark in football. The problem is that he’s going up against a Broncos defense that is fourth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.070). Denver’s top-five passing defense (-0.046 in Dropback EPA per play) should be up to the task of keeping this passing game in check, especially with star corner Pat Surtain II set to return. The Broncos should also find ways to keep Mariota from getting his feet set, as they’re fourth in the NFL in Pass Rush Win Rate (43%).
As far as the Denver offense goes, I know this hasn’t been the greatest sophomore season from Bo Nix. But the Broncos are still an average team offensively. That should be good enough against a bottom-of-the-barrel defense. Even without J.K. Dobbins, I expect Denver to have some success running against a soft Washington defensive line. Then, Nix should be able to make some plays — at least in the play-action game.
Broncos vs. Commanders Player Props
Courtland Sutton Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Sutton hasn’t had the most productive season for the Broncos. At times, it can feel like the talented veteran is just running cardio out there. However, Sutton has still had at least 50 receiving yards in seven of the 11 games he has played. That said, even in something of a down season, he can be trusted to go Over the mark set in this game. And that’s especially true with this being an awesome matchup for him. This Washington defense is amongst the worst in football, and our WR-CB Matchup Tool has Sutton with one of the best matchups of the week. That Fantasy Points tool loves Sutton’s chances of performing at a high level against Mike Sainristil, who has a PFF coverage grade of 50.0. That grade puts him at 95th out of 110 players at the position, so Sutton really should make some plays here.
Broncos vs. Commanders Pick
I generally like to stay away from 5.5-point spreads, as it feels like the oddsmakers set this number when they have games in no man’s land. However, I do think Denver has a chance of winning this one convincingly. The Broncos defense is getting closer to 100% health, so they should slow down a weak offense. And Nix should be able to do just enough through the air to help his team handle its business on the road. And I’m banking on Sutton to help him do that.
Bet: Broncos -5.5 (-110) & Sutton Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
