Buccaneers vs. Falcons – Thursday Night Football Player Prop Best Bets:

I’m not complaining about the 2024 season so far, and I’m going to be extra careful coming off a big week because the NFL stands for the National Fake You Out League. That said, I have four plays for Thursday Night Football that I feel good about, so let’s get to it. 

 

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Thursday Night Football 

Ray-Ray McCloud III: Over 3.5 Receptions – 115, Over 33.5 Receiving Yards -120

After putting up a season-best 6/52 receiving on 7 targets (20%) last week against the Saints, Ray-Ray now has 42+ receiving yards in 3-of-4 games. McCloud is averaging .20 TPRR and .73 YPRR on 30 routes against the blitz, but I think he’ll be the hot read again this week for Kirk Cousins, and the Buccaneers have allowed the 11th-most receptions (29) to receivers aligned in the slot. They run Cover 3 46% of the time, and Ray-Ray sees a +124% boost to his TPRR against Cover 3, and he leads the team with a strong .47 FP/RR. 

Tyler Allgeier: Over 36.5 Rushing Yards -110

I think this one will be a close, lower-scoring game, and Allgeier out-carried Bijan Robinson last week (8 to 7) for the first time. Bijan had a shoulder issue last week, but DT Calijah Kancey and S Antoine Winfield are out again, and the Bucs are allowing the second-highest success rate (58.1%) and a generous 5.1 YPC to RBs. He’s rushed for 21, 53, 32, and 60 yards in four games so far, and Allgeier (6.1 YPC) might actually be a better fit for their blocking scheme than Bijan (4.1 YPC). 

Cade Otton: Over 3.5 Receptions -110

The Bucs are down to the bottom of the barrel at receiver this week with WRs Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer out, and Otton has been active as the third option the last two weeks with a team-high 7 receptions on 8 targets (24.2%) last week and 6/52 receiving on 9 targets (19.1%) in Week 4. Otton had a solid 7/59/1 receiving on 11 targets in two matchups against the Falcons last season. You do not want to play Otton against man-heavy teams, but the Bucs play the most zone in the NFL, so it’s a positive schematic matchup for Otton.

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