NFL Player Props
Bettors are very accustomed to player props nowadays, but it wasn’t always like that. Every game is now loaded with betting options on individual players, but it used to be something special, largely reserved for the Super Bowl and other major events. We can all agree that it’s better the way that it is now and what makes them so valuable is the volume. Lots of players give us lots of opportunities to find edges.
But, when you get to this point of the season, the options dwindle for sure. There are only four teams on the schedule, so only four quarterbacks to pick from and a lower number of skill position players. We do have two very different games to handicap as well, adding a little bit of spice and flavor to a dish with limited ingredients.
OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections are now available. Consult them before locking in your prop wagers this weekend. I did while putting together this week’s article.
And don’t forget that our friends at Fantasy Points have some excellent tools for not only fantasy football lineup decisions, but also NFL player prop betting. Use the promo code VSIN2025 to get a discount on their Data Suite, a collection of proprietary tools and models. To get an idea of what Fantasy Points has to offer, check out their WR/CB Matchup Tool.
As always, shop around for these Divisional Round NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 10:05 a.m. PT on Friday, January 23 and are from DraftKings.
Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.
Here are some Player Props for the NFL Conference Championships:
Matthew Stafford (LAR) Over 0.5 Interceptions (-117)
Through Week 12, Stafford had only thrown two interceptions. Over the last eight games, Stafford has thrown seven interceptions. He didn’t throw any in the two games against the Seahawks during the regular season, but the Seattle defense did have 18 interceptions for the season as a whole.
In terms of the regular season, Stafford has thrown 67 interceptions in 79 outdoor games. I’ll take a shot on this one in a pressure cooker game against an elite defense with a QB that will probably have a pretty high volume of throws.
OptaAI projects Stafford for 1.2 interceptions.
Kenneth Walker III (SEA) Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-109)
Lost in the Bo Nix injury discourse is that Sam Darnold had an oblique injury that left him questionable for the game against the 49ers. Maybe it’s no longer an issue and maybe it’s being managed, but he was 12-of-17 for 124 yards with a long of 21 against San Fran. Now, the Seahawks didn’t need him to go out there and be special, but I still wonder if OC Klint Kubiak has to keep the kid gloves on him a bit and limit the downfield targets.
There’s also the Zach Charbonnet angle here. Walker had 252 touches during the regular season. Only 21 of those came on third down. Charbonnet, an objectively better pass protection pass, got a lot of third down and short-yardage work. Walker had 127 carries and 13 catches on first down and 80 carries and 11 catches on second down. Now that he’s effectively an every-down back in this game, even with George Holani’s expected return, Walker has to have a better chance at receptions and receiving yards.
He’s only gone Over this number six times this season, but one of them was against the 49ers last week.
OptaAI projects Walker for 29.34 receiving yards.
Broncos Longest FG Made (-105)
Andre Borregales has been an unsung hero for the Patriots, making 27 of 32 field goals, including four from 50+ and a long of 59. But, I’ll be hoping that the Broncos are the team with the longest kick here. Wil Lutz has missed two from 50+ and two from 40-49, while Borregales has missed four from 40-49. Pretty even, all things considered.
This is where the Jarrett Stidham factor could weigh in. The Patriots have their regular QB in Drake Maye, who probably has a better chance at converting some crucial third downs than Stidham does. The Broncos were 10th on third down at 41.2% with Nix, while the Patriots were sixth at 42.9%. Neither team is overly aggressive on fourth down, but the Patriots were more willing to go for it with 25 attempts to Denver’s 20. Given all that, I’ll take my chances on this coin-flippy type of bet.
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