NFL Player Props
Old Man Winter’s lungs are full and he’s getting ready to start blowing cold air around the country on Sundays. We’ve also got a chilly Monday Night Football game this week. Weather is a factor over the remainder of the college football and NFL seasons and will have an impact on the bets you’ll want to make. When it comes to Week 10 NFL player props, injuries are a heavy consideration as well, and even more of one than the playing conditions, but Chicago, New Jersey, and Green Bay look like weather hotspots. Er, coldspots.
Game state is still a factor you want to try to keep in mind as well, along with first and second half splits. Some teams defend better early, some teams defend better late, and some teams really make good in-game adjustments while others don’t. All factors in prop betting.
We also have a new and exciting tool here at VSiN, as OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections are now available. Consult them before locking in your prop wagers this weekend. I did while putting together this week’s article.
And don’t forget that our friends at Fantasy Points have some excellent tools for not only fantasy football lineup decisions, but also NFL player prop betting. Use the promo code VSIN2025 to get a discount on their Data Suite, a collection of proprietary tools and models. To get an idea of what Fantasy Points has to offer, check out their WR/CB Matchup Tool.
As always, shop around for these Week 10 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 12:00 p.m. PT on Friday, November 7 and are from DraftKings.
Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.
Here are some Player Props NFL Week 10:
TreVeyon Henderson (NE) Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-116)
Henderson gets a tough matchup from a rushing standpoint here against a Bucs defense that has limited opposing ball carriers to 3.9 yards per pop. Tampa Bay is third in Rush EPA and Rush Success Rate against, so they are a really good unit in that regard.
Where they have had some issues, though, is with picking up running backs in the passing game. The Bucs have allowed 55 more receiving yards to running backs than any other team. Henderson should be an every-down back for the Patriots with Rhamondre Stevenson out, so he should have a massive snap share and be a focal point of the offense.
Henderson had four catches on six targets last week for 32 yards while playing 75% of the snaps against the Falcons. Henderson had 77 catches in college for 853 yards and has always showcased good hands. With Kayshon Boutte also out, Henderson should get more touches because of what he can do in space. Boutte is third in targets, but second in yards and first in yards per reception because he gets the ball in space. Henderson should be that guy this week.
OptaAI has Henderson for 30.03 receiving yards.
Quinshon Judkins (CLE) Under 85.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Big number here on Judkins, as inflation was to be expected with Quinnen Williams now out of the picture for the Jets. A lot of the talk around Browns circles with the transition of play-calling duties from head coach Kevin Stefanski to OC Tommy Rees is that this is a move in hopes of helping Dillon Gabriel grow and to get Jerry Jeudy back involved in the offense.
Maybe more throwing opens more lanes for Judkins, as he’s faced 8+ in the box on 44.07% of his snaps per NFL Next Gen Stats. The Browns are 31st in Rush Success Rate. While Judkins is a very good player, their offensive line is really poor. The absence of Williams will allow others to get a look and those others are very motivated to go out there and show something.
Yes, Williams is a loss, but this is a run defense that ranks ninth in Success Rate per RBSDM and Judkins has only averaged 1.5 yards before contact per rush attempt. I’ll take my chances on this one and I think we could also see more Dylan Sampson and/or Jerome Ford with Rees calling plays to give different looks.
OptaAI has Judkins for 76.55 rushing yards.
Cameron Dicker (LAC) Over 8.5 Kicking Points (+108)
Taking a page from Pauly Howard’s book here with some kicker props, but Dicker has a dream matchup this week. The Steelers have allowed the second-most yards per drive in the NFL, but rank seventh in red zone defense at 53.3% (16/30). The Chargers offense is third in yards per drive and ranks 26th in red zone success at just 50% (16/32).
Dicker gets to kick inside at SoFi Stadium, so that’s nice, too. Dicker is 20-for-21 this season and his one miss was actually at home. He has only missed two field goals at SoFi in 53 tries. Justin Herbert is usually pretty responsible with the football and the only thing saving a bad Pittsburgh defense from looking worse is 16 takeaways, as they’ve recovered eight fumbles to lead the league.
If the Chargers play a mostly clean game on that front, Dicker should be in good shape for this.
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