NFL Player Props
The winds of winter are starting to tick up, as we have several games that have higher than normal breezes. That doesn’t mean that the speeds are going to be super impactful, but the Buccaneers, Bills, Ravens, and Browns are the ones who will have the most to deal with from a weather standpoint. The Bengals and Steelers will also have some wind to contend with at Acrisure Stadium.
You don’t want to overreact to weather, but it has to be part of the consideration when handicapping spreads, totals, and player props. You could certainly look to attack this with special teams props and also looking at some passing numbers. But, there are other things to think about this week, including more injuries and some varying game states with a lot of closely-lined games.
We also have a new and exciting tool here at VSiN, as OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections are now available. Consult them before locking in your prop wagers this weekend. I did while putting together this week’s article.
And don’t forget that our friends at Fantasy Points have some excellent tools for not only fantasy football lineup decisions, but also NFL player prop betting. Use the promo code VSIN2025 to get a discount on their Data Suite, a collection of proprietary tools and models. To get an idea of what Fantasy Points has to offer, check out their WR/CB Matchup Tool.
As always, shop around for these Week 11 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 6:00 p.m. PT on Friday, November 14 and are from DraftKings.
Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.
Here are some Player Props NFL Week 11:
Rashid Shaheed (SEA) Over 2.5 Receptions (-108) and Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Shaheed was a mid-week acquisition by the Seahawks last week, as Klint Kubiak, the former Saints OC, isolated him as a need to deepen their WR corps. Shaheed had 67 targets and 45 catches for the Saints, who were a very limited pass offense.
Now he has a more accurate QB in a scheme that he’s familiar with and has had a full week of practice and a little bit of time to get acclimated, not only to his team, but his new living situation. The Saints were the only NFL team he had been with and moving from New Orleans to Seattle is no easy task in the middle of a season.
He fits in well with the Seahawks as a guy with a career aDOT of 13.6 yards and he’s been sure-handed throughout his career with a 1.4% Drop% per Pro-Football-Reference. Darnold ranks second in Air Yards to the Sticks per NFL Next Gen Stats and second in Intended Air Yards, so that fits Shaheed’s skill set.
Also, a coaching staff as good as the Rams will likely be trying to take Jaxon Smith-Njigba out of the game as much as possible, so Shaheed should be a better option, especially since Cooper Kupp has been banged-up and utilized very little.
OptaAI has Shaheed down for 4.02 receptions and 46.13 receiving yards.
Kimani Vidal (LAC) Under 64.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Say what you will about the Jaguars, but the one thing we can all agree on is that their run defense is solid. They are third in Rushing Success Rate against per RBSDM and have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards in the league. The offense has its flaws, but they are 10th in plays per drive on offense.
The Chargers are second in plays per drive, so we could see some long, drawn-out possessions in this game. LA has largely achieved that with the pass, though, as they are 21st in Rush EPA and 20th in Rush Success Rate. They enter Week 10 tied for the league lead in pass attempts with 362 against 264 rushes, of which 51 of those belong to Justin Herbert.
I have questions about the Chargers this week, as noted in my First Touchdown Scorer article. In three trips east for early kickoffs, they’ve given up the first TD. Vidal has only averaged 4.4 yards per carry and his games well over this total have been wins against clearly lesser teams and lesser run defenses.
OptaAI has Vidal down for 59.8 rushing yards.
Javonte Williams (DAL) Under 17.5 Rushing Attempts (+100)
I’ll take another running back Under here and look at Williams and his rushing attempts. He’s only gone over this number in three games this season and two of them went to overtime, so he had an extra period to get a few more carries. He had 18 carries in Week 2 against the Giants, 20 against the Packers in Week 4, and 19 against the Commanders in a 44-22 win in Week 7.
There are a lot of things wrong with the Raiders, but the run defense isn’t one of them. The advanced metrics don’t shine as favorably because the Raiders only have four fumble recoveries and they have allowed 12 rushing TD, which ranks in the bottom five. But, aside from not getting a ton of stops in the red zone, they’ve been good. The pass defense is pretty mediocre and Dallas is a pass-first offense, especially with CeeDee Lamb back.
The Cowboys also come into this game with the worst third-down defense in the NFL at 52.6% and they have allowed the third-most yards per drive. The Raiders may actually be able to protect the ball and have some decent drives here, with every second off the field for Williams a positive with this wager.
OptaAI has Williams down for 18.57 rushing attempts.
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