NFL Player Props
With the Thanksgiving games added to this season’s ledger, we still have 13 games over four days to think about for this weekend. After we had seven games in a domed environment last week, we only have four this week and two of them have been played already. Monday marks the first day of December, so cold temps, winds, and precipitation are all going to be in the forecast from this week forward. The weather could be part of your Week 13 NFL Player Props handicapping process with a few dicey locales.
Of course, a lot of market-makers have gotten to those things already and have either them down or tipped off oddsmakers that those games and players could be affected. Make sure that if you aren’t getting to them quickly, you aren’t getting the worst of the number. Shop around or maybe stay away if it looks too low for your comfort level.
We also have a new and exciting tool here at VSiN, as OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections are now available. Consult them before locking in your prop wagers this weekend. I did while putting together this week’s article.
And don’t forget that our friends at Fantasy Points have some excellent tools for not only fantasy football lineup decisions, but also NFL player prop betting. Use the promo code VSIN2025 to get a discount on their Data Suite, a collection of proprietary tools and models. To get an idea of what Fantasy Points has to offer, check out their WR/CB Matchup Tool.
As always, shop around for these Week 13 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 04:30 p.m. PT on Friday, November 28 and are from DraftKings.
Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.
Here are some Player Props NFL Week 13:
Shedeur Sanders (CLE) Under 0.5 Touchdown Passes (+146)
Going to take a shot here with this one, as people seem to really be overrating and overvaluing Cleveland’s win over the Raiders. The Browns had a 26% Success Rate in that game, which, as occasional VSiN guest @ClevTA pointed out on Twitter was one of the 10 worst offensive showings in the NFL this season.
The team’s Dropback Success Rate was 25% and their Rushing Success Rate was 26.9%. While the 49ers actually do have worse defensive metrics than the Raiders in Success Rate against, they’ve also played both games against the Rams, played the Bucs, and gave up 452 yards to Jacoby Brissett in a blowout. In this game, we’ll have awful weather in Cleveland yet again, with wind gusts around 35 mph and probably some rain.
The Browns had six 3-and-outs, one 4-and-out, and had 157 of their 270 yards on three explosive pass plays. Shedeur has a 48.5% On Target Percentage per Pro-Football-Reference. He has 162 yards after catch from his receivers so far. I really don’t think the Browns get into the scoring areas very often in this one and may run the ball and rely on their defense if they do.
OptaAI has Sanders down for 0.8 touchdown passes.
De’Von Achane (MIA) Over 80.5 Rushing Yards (-113) and Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
If you look at the Rush + Rec Yards O/U tab on DraftKings, you’ll see Achane’s number lined at 119.5, but if you look individually, they add up to 115. At worst, I think there’s a split here and I’ll trade the 4.5 yards for taking each play individually.
It seems that Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel and his OC Frank Smith had an epiphany after getting pummeled by the Ravens in Week 9 on Thursday Night Football. In the games against the Bills and Commanders, Achane had 28 and 26 touches, respectively, racking up 225 yards against Buffalo (174, 51) and 165 against Washington (120, 45).
Achane only trails Jaylen Waddle by two targets this season and has 164 rushing attempts. He’s averaging 19.8 touches per game, but he’s exceeded that by a lot in his last two games and I would expect more of the same here against the Saints. From a game state standpoint, Achane should get a healthy number of carries with Miami off of the bye and favored by a good amount.
There aren’t a lot of places for Tua Tagovailoa to go with the football with Tyreek Hill out and no viable tight ends since Darren Waller got hurt. The Saints are actually a pretty good run defense, but the threat of Achane as a receiver should spread them out and they’re a borderline bottom-five pass defense.
OptaAI has Achane down for 69.29 rushing yards and 27.77 receiving yards.
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