NFL Player Props
We’re getting to the point in the season where player incentives will be a talking point and will drive up some of the lines in the prop betting markets. With five weeks left to rack up as many numbers as possible for those bonuses or upcoming contract negotiations, guys on both sides of the ball should be locked in, even if their teams aren’t really playing for much of anything. I’m not ready to factor those into my handicapping too much, but they will start to circulate. Maybe not all that heavily for Week 14 NFL Player Props.
The weather is a factor in a few places – Jacksonville, Cleveland, Buffalo, and Green Bay are the ones that stand out the most, though three of those cities shouldn’t surprise anybody on the first full weekend of December. Nevertheless, something to consider as we look at what’s available on the market.
We also have a new and exciting tool here at VSiN, as OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections are now available. Consult them before locking in your prop wagers this weekend. I did while putting together this week’s article.
And don’t forget that our friends at Fantasy Points have some excellent tools for not only fantasy football lineup decisions, but also NFL player prop betting. Use the promo code VSIN2025 to get a discount on their Data Suite, a collection of proprietary tools and models. To get an idea of what Fantasy Points has to offer, check out their WR/CB Matchup Tool.
As always, shop around for these Week 14 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 04:00 p.m. PT on Friday, December 5 and are from DraftKings.
Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.
Here are some Player Props NFL Week 14:
Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) Under 3.5 Receptions (-121)
Thomas hasn’t been nearly as big of a factor in the Jacksonville offense as we all expected. Liam Coen is an offensive-minded head coach and Thomas, who caught 87 balls on 133 targets as a rookie, was thought to be a major focal point of the offense. It’s actually been the opposite and now we’re seeing Jakobi Meyers get even more reps after he was acquired from the Raiders.
Thomas has actually gone under this number in five of his nine games this season. He came back last week and had a 74.6% snap share against the Titans, but only had two catches on three targets for 28 yards. In the two games prior to missing time with his injury, Thomas played 66.2% and 65% of the snaps on offense. He’s only caught 32 of his 63 targets and I really think Coen wants to minimize Trevor Lawrence’s involvement as much as possible.
The Jaguars are seventh in Rush EPA and 14th in Rushing Success Rate and the Colts defense ranks 22nd in Rushing Success Rate against. I think you’ll see a lot of Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten here, along with a lot of 3rd-and-shorts so that Thomas isn’t called upon for big plays. Also, in a really big game with first place on the line, I think Coen simply trusts the run over the pass.
OptaAI has Thomas down for 3.53 receptions.
RJ Harvey (DEN) Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110) & Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-117)
Sean Payton has an excellent opportunity this weekend to get Harvey a lot of touches and a lot of confidence for the stretch run. With JK Dobbins still out, the highly-touted rookie second-rounder is going to need to emerge. He only played 47.1% of the snaps last week after playing 61.3% the week prior against the Chiefs, but we have seen his usage spike. He’s had 24 carries and seven targets with six catches in the last two games.
The Raiders defense isn’t that bad, but the suggested game state here with Denver a heavy road favorite suggests that they should be able to control things and should be able to utilize Harvey more than they have otherwise. Dobbins had 18 carries for 77 yards against the Raiders the last time these two teams played.
With each passing week, there should be more plays scripted for Harvey and a game here where the Broncos could get some extra possessions via turnovers helps both causes here. If you’re wondering why it’s both and not just Rush + Rec Yards, that number is 69.5 and these add up to 65 when I think he features prominently in both areas.
OptaAI has Harvey down for 48.82 rushing yards and 12.67 receiving yards.
Dolphins/Jets Over 7.5 Punts (-115)
You’ll have to dig pretty deep at DraftKings to find this, but it’s on the section for that game and then under Special Teams Props. I have a hard time believing that Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense will enjoy this one in the Meadowlands, with temps around 40. Tua’s completion rate in December is the lowest of any full month at 65.8% and that obviously doesn’t split home and road games.
These teams rank 22nd and 23rd in third-down conversion rate on offense. The Jets are sixth in the league in third-down conversion rate against. The Dolphins are 23rd, but they’re obviously facing a pretty poor offense in this game. I’ll take my chances with a bit of a punt-fest here.
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