NFL Player Props
Cold weather and double-digit favorites are the two big storylines around the NFL in Week 15. Several games will have kickoff temps around or below freezing, including the games in Kansas City, Cincinnati, New York/New Jersey, Chicago, Foxboro, Philly, and Pittsburgh. Having warm enough hands to grip and throw the football can be tough.
The games with big favorites could have really intriguing game states, leading to lots of runs for the favorite and lots of passes for the underdog, assuming that the underdog can remain on the field long enough to rack up some volume on that front. Just some things to keep in mind as you analyze the NFL Week 15 player props odds.
We also have a new and exciting tool here at VSiN, as OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections are now available. Consult them before locking in your prop wagers this weekend. I did while putting together this week’s article.
And don’t forget that our friends at Fantasy Points have some excellent tools for not only fantasy football lineup decisions, but also NFL player prop betting. Use the promo code VSIN2025 to get a discount on their Data Suite, a collection of proprietary tools and models. To get an idea of what Fantasy Points has to offer, check out their WR/CB Matchup Tool.
As always, shop around for these Week 15 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 10:45 a.m. PT on Friday, December 12 and are from DraftKings.
Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.
Here are some Player Props NFL Week 15:
Cam Ward (TEN) Over 197.5 Passing Yards (-112), Over 21.5 Completions (+100)
Ward has no weather worries, as he’ll be out in Santa Clara, CA, where it will be sunny and in the 60s. The rookie has been hurried 49 times this season, which ranks second behind Caleb Williams. He’s been sacked 49 times, tied for the league lead with Geno Smith. It’s been tough sledding in his first season.
But, he may get a respite here and a chance to put up some numbers. The 49ers enter this game 27th in Dropback EPA on defense and 25th in Dropback Success Rate against per RBSDM. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the 49ers are last in Pressure% at 14.4% and 30th in Hurry% at just 5.5%. They have a league-low 16 sacks on the season. Opposing QBs have completed 69.2% of their passes. Only the Dolphins have allowed a higher completion rate.
Where the 49ers do excel is with limiting big plays in the passing game, as their 10 yards per reception are third-best in the league, but the suggested game state here based on the double-digit lead could lead to San Francisco playing a lot of soft coverage to just let the clock run down in the second half.
The completions prop is a pretty juicy price, but I think it’s too low given the matchup and expected game state. As it is, Ward has gone Over that number in seven of 13 games, with five of the six where he’s fallen short against the Rams (2nd in Dropback EPA), Browns (5th), Broncos (7th), Chargers (4th), and Texans (1st). The 49ers are nowhere near that level.
OptaAI has Ward down for 209.53 passing yards and 20.76 completions.
Dalton Kincaid (BUF) Over 3.5 Receptions (-107)
One QB who shouldn’t be affected by the cold is Josh Allen, who played in a lot of it in college at Wyoming and has been forced to play through some miserable conditions in Buffalo. Kincaid was on a pitch count last week, as he only played 22 snaps in his return after missing a few weeks. He’s been kind of a part-time player this season with only a 40.8% snap share, but this is a great week to deploy him.
The Patriots have allowed the eighth-most receptions by tight ends and eighth-most targets. Kincaid had six catches for 108 yards in the first meeting and had his second-highest snap share of the season at 54.4%. Even though he’s only played nine of the team’s 13 games, Kincaid leads all TE in plays of 20+ yards with 11. He’s a guy who can stretch the field and the Bills don’t have many great WR options, so I’d expect him to be busy.
OptaAI has Kincaid down for 2.9 receptions.
Raiders/Eagles Over 9.5 Punts (+115)
Not a player prop, but last week’s punt prop came through pretty easily and I like this one here. I have to admit, I was pretty surprised to see the Eagles with the fourth-most punts in the NFL. Only the Broncos, Titans, and Browns have more. The Raiders are ninth in punts. Philly is just 28th in third-down conversion rate, as maybe the brain drain of assistants and coordinators and the long seasons the last few years are catching up with this team.
The Raiders stink on third down as well, ranking 26th in the league. Neither defense has shined on third down, but some chilly weather could be a big equalizer, especially for a Raiders team playing outside with an early kickoff and no semblance of an offense. They also have a banged-up QB in Geno Smith. We also have a total of just 38.5 for this game, which would suggest that we don’t see a lot of explosive plays.
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