NFL Player Props
It is hard to believe that we only have 47 games left of the regular season now that the first of 16 games for Week 16 is in the books. Week 18 will have 16 “games”, but we’ll obviously have to wait and see how everything shakes out with the playoff races and see how many teams will be sitting some of their starters. No matter what, we adapt, use the information available to us, and try to find winners, including the NFL Week 16 player props that are out there.
My weekly weather update takes us to Chicago and Cleveland, where we’ve got cold and wind. Not a big surprise for those two cities when we’re looking at football games on December 21, but still worth mentioning. Also worth mentioning is that the days start getting longer after this weekend, so it won’t be dark at 4:30 forever.
We also have a new and exciting tool here at VSiN, as OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections are now available. Consult them before locking in your prop wagers this weekend. I did while putting together this week’s article.
And don’t forget that our friends at Fantasy Points have some excellent tools for not only fantasy football lineup decisions, but also NFL player prop betting. Use the promo code VSIN2025 to get a discount on their Data Suite, a collection of proprietary tools and models. To get an idea of what Fantasy Points has to offer, check out their WR/CB Matchup Tool.
As always, shop around for these Week 16 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 10:25 a.m. PT on Friday, December 19 and are from DraftKings.
Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.
Here are some Player Props NFL Week 16:
Darren Waller (MIA) Over 2.5 Receptions (-131), Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
I talked about Waller and about the Bengals defense in my first touchdown scorer article for this week, but he warrants another mention here in Quinn Ewers’ first NFL start. Waller returned in Week 13 with three targets and a couple of receptions. He only had one catch with three targets in Week 14, but exploded last week with seven grabs on eight targets for 66 yards and two touchdowns.
For all of Mike McDaniel’s flaws, he remains a very smart offensive mind. And I do think that he’ll look to the veteran Waller as a safety net for Ewers. It shouldn’t be hard. The Bengals have allowed 1,276 receiving yards to TE, which is 307 more than any other team with 14 games played and 236 more than any other team. Coincidentally, the Steelers have allowed the fourth-most passing yards and fourth-most receptions to TE and Waller had that huge game last week.
I’d expect the same here with no weather worries in Miami and a potential shootout going up against what should be a pretty motivated Joe Burrow.
OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections have Waller down for 2.61 receptions and 31.39 receiving yards.
Justin Herbert (LAC) Over 32.5 Pass Attempts (-118)
Herbert is tied for the league lead in sacks taken with 49, as that just comes with the territory with his high rate of dropbacks and some offensive line injuries. But, he’s still averaging 32.2 pass attempts per game on the season. Surely Greg Roman wants to get Omarion Hampton assimilated back into the offense more, but this is also a week where throwing the ball makes a ton of sense.
The Cowboys are last in passing yards allowed with 3,793 and also last in passing touchdowns allowed with 31 against just six interceptions. They have the third-worst defense in the NFL on third down, as opponents have converted at a 46.5% clip. Conversely, the Chargers are the fifth-best at 35.4%. The Chargers are also the third-best offense at converting on their own third downs. In other words, this game should provide some ball control opportunities for the Chargers.
The Cowboys only have 29 sacks despite leading the league in Hurry% per Pro-Football-Reference. They have the second-most pressures. Opposing coaches have obviously figured out ways to get the ball out quick enough and exploit something in the Dallas defense. I think Herbert and the Chargers can do the same.
OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections have Herbert down for 36.73 pass attempts.
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) Under 31.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Hubbard has seen his workload really drop as the season has gone on. From Week 1 through Week 8, with the exception of the two weeks he missed, Hubbard had a snap share of at least 50.7% and was over 62% in the first three games of the season. Since then, he’s only had one game like that, a 59.4% snap share in Week 13 against the Rams when he had 17 carries for 83 yards.
Starting with Week 7 on, Hubbard has had 31, 34, 17, 14, 21, 16, 83, 29 rushing yards, so Under this total in six of the eight games. If we go further, we should look at the fact that he’s had seven targets with 77 receiving yards in the last three weeks. The Buccaneers have allowed the most receiving yards to running backs by a large margin this year. By large, I mean that they’ve allowed 783 and the next closest team is 657.
Since Hubbard is predominantly a third down and situational back at this point, I could see him getting his touches in the passing game and not the running game given this matchup. This battle for first place is not a game where you worry about feelings and playing time. Rico Dowdle is the better of the two backs. I’d also be surprised if this one has a game state where the Panthers run it a ton.
OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections have Hubbard down for 27.39 rushing yards.
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