NFL Player Props
The penultimate week of the 2025 NFL regular season has arrived. Week 17 brings with it a lot of considerations, including those player incentives that have been running rampant around social media circles of late. Yes, there are players that need X number of catches, X number of yards, X number of touchdowns, etc. to earn some more money from this season based on what their contract bonuses for performance are.
Guess what…the sportsbooks are already well aware of those things, so you’re going to be paying an inflated line or heavier vig on those types of things. Even the ones that may have slipped through the cracks would be scooped up by now. I’m not saying that those bets can’t hit. I am saying that you’ll need them to hit while taking a more risky position because of where the line sits.
Before looking at the Week 17 NFL player props, a quick weather update, as we have shaky weather in Cleveland, Nashville, New Jersey, Cincinnati, and Buffalo, with Cleveland and Buffalo likely the two worst spots thanks to wind and rain.
We also have a new and exciting tool here at VSiN, as OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections are now available. Consult them before locking in your prop wagers this weekend. I did while putting together this week’s article.
And don’t forget that our friends at Fantasy Points have some excellent tools for not only fantasy football lineup decisions, but also NFL player prop betting. Use the promo code VSIN2025 to get a discount on their Data Suite, a collection of proprietary tools and models. To get an idea of what Fantasy Points has to offer, check out their WR/CB Matchup Tool.
As always, shop around for these Week 17 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 2:25 p.m. PT on Friday, December 26 and are from DraftKings.
Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.
Here are some Player Props NFL Week 17:
Tyjae Spears (TEN) Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (-109)
All of the attention will be on Tony Pollard, who needs 51 yards to hit 1,000 for the fourth straight season, but the Titans have simply found tremendous success overall running the football. They might as well do it here, as the Saints defense ranks second in Dropback EPA and first in Dropback Success Rate on defense over the last five weeks.
But, they are 12th in Rush EPA and 22nd in Rush Success Rate, so this should set up well for Tennessee to run the rock as they like to do. Over the last three games, the Titans have rushed for 184, 136, and 164 yards, as they’ve at least gotten that part of the offense going. Spears has gone over this number in back-to-back games and had eight carries against Cleveland. He only went for 19 yards, but he’s consistently getting touches and still has a snap share for the season of 45.3%, even though Pollard is having such a huge year.
The weather may also play a role in the play selection for Tennessee, but I think this matchup just lends itself well to running the ball and they’ve done well with that recently.
OptaAI projects Spears for 24.7 rushing yards.
Shedeur Sanders (CLE) Over 17.5 Completions (-104)
While the decision-makers are probably set on drafting a QB, and maybe a new GM and head coach would like to handpick that player, the evaluation continues of Sanders. With Quinshon Judkins out, it will be Raheim Sanders and Dylan Sampson as the running backs and Sampson has 28 receptions, which is fourth on the team. They seem to like to use him more as a pass-catcher than a runner, as he has 44 carries spread out over his 13 games.
Pittsburgh hasn’t been a great defense over the last five weeks against the pass or the run. But, with Cleveland’s offensive line situation and the Judkins injury, it seems to be that we’re likely to see Sanders throw a bit more often. He’s gone Over this number in three straight games and the game state will probably be favorable towards this bet, as the Browns are probably going to be trailing.
OptaAI projects Sanders for 18.87 completions.
Eagles/Bills Over 7.5 Total Punts (+105)
Not a player prop, but a prop bet that I do like. Weather could be a significant factor in Buffalo as I mentioned above. If we look at the top performing defenses by EPA/play over the last five weeks, the Eagles are No. 5 and the Bills are No. 11. The Eagles have only turned the ball over 14 times. The Bills have turned it over a few more times, but only once in their last three games.
The Eagles are just 24th in third down offense. While the Bills are fourth, they’re facing a really solid defense in this game. Philadelphia is in the middle of the pack in third down defense, but has also faced the ninth-most third down attempts because of their early-down success rate on defense. With the weather and a couple of surging defensive units, I think this is worth a shot at plus money.
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