NFL Player Props
Contract incentives, round numbers, benchmarks, and all sorts of other considerations are part of handicapping Week 18 NFL player props. It should be mentioned that the incentives are already priced into the market. Nobody betting them at this stage is getting some sort of bargain or pulling one over on the oddsmakers. They were either accounted for when lines were posted or picked off already by bettors who were quick to jump. Sure, the heightened lines and extra vig may still come through, but just be aware you’re betting into an adjusted market.
The other big wrinkle this week is that we may not see players for entire games based on what is happening in the other games that matter to them. Starters may get lifted fairly early or maybe only play a quarter or a half based on their team’s situation. All factors to work into your thought process as we try to finish the regular season on a high note.
We also have a new and exciting tool here at VSiN, as OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections are now available. Consult them before locking in your prop wagers this weekend. I did while putting together this week’s article.
And don’t forget that our friends at Fantasy Points have some excellent tools for not only fantasy football lineup decisions, but also NFL player prop betting. Use the promo code VSIN2025 to get a discount on their Data Suite, a collection of proprietary tools and models. To get an idea of what Fantasy Points has to offer, check out their WR/CB Matchup Tool.
As always, shop around for these Week 18 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 1:25 p.m. PT on Friday, January 2 and are from DraftKings.
Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.
Here are some Player Props NFL Week 18:
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) Under 31.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
Lawrence has averaged 33.1 pass attempts this season over 16 games, but this game could be a lot different than a normal game. The Jaguars beat the Titans 25-3 earlier this season and jumped on them quick with 18 first half points. I’m assuming that Liam Coen would like to do something similar, or maybe even better, here to be able to rest his guys in the second half.
If nothing else, the Jaguars may be squatting on a lead and looking to run the football in the second half. It’s been a really strong second half of the season for Lawrence and Jacksonville’s pass attack, especially as they’ve assimilated Jakobi Meyers into the scheme with more frequency.
But, the running game has been problematic. Over the last five weeks, the Jags are 30th in Rush EPA and 31st in Rush Success Rate per RBSDM. Coen’s a pretty sharp cat and I think he’ll be looking to get the ground game some confidence going into Wild Card Weekend.
OptaAI projects Lawrence for 30.77 pass attempts.
Juwan Johnson (NO) Over 5.5 Receptions (-103); Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
These lines are definitely inflated, but not because of an incentive. It’s because Chris Olave is out for the Saints and somebody is going to have to pick up targets as a result. Olave finished the season with 100 catches on 156 targets. Johnson is three targets away from 100 and second on the team in catches with 74. Rashid Shaheed is still third in catches with 44 and he was traded after Week 9.
Without Olave, Tyler Shough is a longer shot to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but I think Kellen Moore will do what he can to give Shough the chance to put up numbers. Yes, the Saints would like to finish the season with a win, but they’ve made some really positive strides late in the season. Moore, a QB, QB coach, and OC before being the Saints head coach, probably has Shough’s chances in mind and this is the type of spot where you can try to get a little selfish.
My guess is that he’ll have a lot of plays dialed up for Johnson. He’s only gone Over this receptions number in eight of the 16 games, but had four catches in four other games and isn’t fighting with Olave for looks. He’s only gone Over the yardage total in five games, but he’s the only viable pass catcher here and two of those games have been in Weeks 16 and 17.
OptaAI projects Johnson for 5.12 receptions and 53.97 yards.
Shedeur Sanders (CLE) Under 0.5 Touchdown Passes (+188)
I’ll take a shot at a plus-money price here and one that probably doesn’t make a ton of sense on the surface against a swiss-cheese Bengals defense. However, Harold Fannin Jr. is out for the Browns. He has a 27% target share on throws from Sanders and four of his seven passing touchdowns.
Jerry Jeudy looked totally checked out in last week’s game against the Steelers, as he played 94.2% of the snaps and had five catches on seven targets for just 54 yards. He’s got two TD catches this season. David Njoku is out as well and the only other guys with at least 10 targets from Shedeur are Quinshon Judkins (out), Isaiah Bond (12 snaps last week), Dylan Sampson, and Cedric Tillman.
Fannin and Njoku are huge parts of this offense. I doubt any books will offer Sal Cannella props, but the Browns love to throw to their tight ends. Anyway, Shedeur has limited weapons to say the least here.
OptaAI projects Sanders for 1.19 passing TD.
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