NFL Player Props
Many would consider Week 2 to be an overreaction week and that’s also true of NFL player prop betting markets. Guys that had a big target share or a productive day may have simply had an outlier performance or the opposing scheme allowed them to be a more frequent option than usual. Sure, coaches are always evaluating their own talent to find mismatches and things in the playbook that work. But, it doesn’t mean it will work every week.
I mentioned my three factors for player props last week – game state, injury, weather. Wind is the most problematic weather characteristic and we won’t have a lot of that yet, so that factor is a little bit further down the list. Game state and injury create opportunity. What we want is to isolate the opportunity for players to overperform or underperform. Because once the game starts, it’s going to play out how it’s going to play out.
And, of course, the matchups are really important, too. Our friends at Fantasy Points have some excellent tools for not only fantasy football lineup decisions, but also NFL player prop betting. Use the promo code VSIN2025 to get a discount on their Data Suite, a collection of proprietary tools and models.
As always, shop around for these Week 2 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 2:00 p.m. PT on Friday, September 12 and are from DraftKings.
Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.
Here are some Player Props NFL Week 2:
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) Over 3.5 Receptions (+109)
Calvin Ridley led the way for the Titans with eight targets. Elic Ayomanor was next with seven, but his Average Targeted Air Yards (TAY) was 18.4 per NFL Next Gen Stats and he only had an average separation of 1.6 yards. No wonder he only had two catches. There were some heaves heading in his direction and he didn’t get open.
Ward was restricted to a lot of underneath stuff and the Rams are likely to restrict him to the exact same thing. Last week, CJ Stroud had 27 attempts and 20 of them were inside of 10 or fewer yards downfield. Okonkwo had four targets and three catches, but NFL Next Gen Stats had him down for 5.38 yards of average separation, so he was getting himself open. He did have a drop, otherwise he’d have gone Over this 3.5 total.
In a game where the Titans are likely to trail throughout, I think Ward will be looking for Okonkwo more. He also had an 87.7% snap share on offense, so he’s out there and likely to be a factor. Because of the defensive scheme for the Rams, they had the third-most targets and third-most receiving yards against by tight ends last season.
Javonte Williams (DAL) Over 14.5 Rush Attempts (-107)
With both Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle gone from the backfield, Brian Schottenheimer and new OC Klayton Adams have to figure out who they can rely on. So far, it looks like Williams, who had a 77% snap share in last week’s losing effort against the Eagles. Miles Sanders had an explosive carry, but he looked really slow once he got out into the open field.
With the game state suggestive of a Cowboys lead in the second half, I have to think the ball is going to Williams over Sanders, who was used as more of a change-of-pace guy. Interestingly, three of Sanders’ four carries were on first down, where he had four rushing yards and one catch for -3 yards. Williams had nine first-down attempts and six after that. Obviously the evolution of play-calling on early downs hasn’t made it to DFW yet.
Nevertheless, after the Giants gave up 6.9 yards per carry last week on 32 attempts, I feel like we’ll see a good dose of Williams.
Bhayshul Tuten (JAX) Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Tuten had three carries and four offensive snaps in Week 1 for the Jaguars. Two of his carries came after Travis Etienne busted a 71-yard run and needed a breather. His third carry came after a 14-yard run for Etienne on Jacksonville’s last non-kneeldown possession of the game and that carry basically sealed the victory, not that the game was much in doubt.
Etienne would return after the Tuten carry and have a 17-yard run and two more carries right after. Tank Bigsby had five carries and 14 snaps with a 21.2% snap share. Tuten might be a strong piece for the Jaguars down the road, but he doesn’t seem to really factor into the offense much yet. He did have a kick return and a huge fumble recovery on special teams, so he’s seeing the field in that regard.
Against the Bengals, in a game expected to be close, I can’t see a big role for Tuten. He had 50 catches over two years at Virginia Tech and Etienne has had 35, 58, and 39 as an NFLer, so it’s not even like Tuten has a third-down role right now.
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