NFL Player Props
The final Sunday of September already. Time flies when you’re having fun and hopefully you’ve been having a lot of fun this football season. Maybe some Week 4 NFL player prop bets will help with that quest. In all seriousness, it does feel like the season is moving very quickly and we’ve found out a lot over the first three weeks of action.
We’re seeing who coaches and quarterbacks trust and who they don’t. How injuries are impacting teams and how they are compensating for them. How teams are doing when they step up in competition or step down in class. All important things when looking at prop markets, along with my three big factors – game state, injury, and opportunity.
We also have a new and exciting tool here at VSiN, as OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections are now available. Consult them before locking in your prop wagers this weekend. I did while putting together this week’s article.
And don’t forget that our friends at Fantasy Points have some excellent tools for not only fantasy football lineup decisions, but also NFL player prop betting. Use the promo code VSIN2025 to get a discount on their Data Suite, a collection of proprietary tools and models. To get an idea of what Fantasy Points has to offer, check out their WR/CB Matchup Tool.
As always, shop around for these Week 4 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 10:00 a.m. PT on Friday, September 26 and are from DraftKings.
Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.
Here are some Player Props NFL Week 4:
Drake Maye (NE) Over 210.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Even though the game state suggests that the Patriots will be ahead in the second half of this game and that typically means running the football, New England only has 301 rushing yards overall and just 4.0 yards per game. Maye is tied for the team’s second-leading rusher, but I think he’ll have more time to hang in the pocket and go through his progressions here.
Per Pro-Football-Reference, the Panthers only have a 7.5% Pressure% and just one sack. They only have one QB Hurry as well. The Panthers have an 18.7% Blitz%, so they really are not an aggressive defense at all. And thus far, they’ve faced the Jaguars, Cardinals, and Falcons, so they haven’t faced a whole lot of good QBs.
New England actually ranks sixth in Dropback Success Rate per RBSDM this season. They are also dead last in Rush EPA and 29th in Rushing Success Rate. This should be an opportunity for Maye and the offense to get into some rhythm. While our OptaAI projections only have Maye for 197.1 yards, Maye has flown over that number in all three starts and has flown Over this 210.5 number as well. He should have a good game here.
Justin Herbert Under 33.5 Pass Attempts (-129); Omarion Hampton Over 16.5 Rush Attempts (-121)
These are a little bit chalky, but it certainly makes sense, right? And there’s a correlation here. The Chargers are road favorites and face one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The Giants are 30th in Rush EPA defense and 30th in Rush Success Rate against. The reality is that Los Angeles has not run the ball effectively thus far with just 3.5 yards per carry.
The loss of Najee Harris is a concern here, but that’s all the more reason for the Chargers to really get Omarion Hampton going and also find a backup, whether that’s Hassan Haskins or somebody not on the roster as of now. While Herbert has been extremely valuable and has really set the tone for this team, we know that Greg Roman wants a running game to utilize.
The Giants have allowed 5.2 yards per carry so far and this strikes me as the kind of game where Jim Harbaugh is going to force feed Hampton and get stuff going.
OptaAI has Hampton with 18.74 rushing attempts and Herbert with 34.57 passing attempts.
James Cook (BUF) Under 75.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Cook has had a terrific season thus far, rushing for 5.4 yards per carry and nearly 95 yards per game. The Ravens bottled him up a bit in the first game, but he’s racked up 240 yards on 40 carries in the last two games. But, I think this game yields the perfect opportunity for Ray Davis and Ty Johnson to get on track a bit.
The Bills are going to need Cook for the long haul. He’s got 62 of the team’s 171 offensive touches. He had 239 touches last season, so he’s on track to go way over that. Cook had 207 carries and Davis had 113 last season, so I do think we’re going to see a little bit more of him moving forward. Same thing with Johnson. In a game where the Bills are likely to beat the Saints badly without needing a ton of Cook reps, I could see them trying to keep him a bit fresher with the Patriots on deck.
Our OptaAI projections have Cook for 82.15 yards, which is Over this number, but I’m taking into account that I expect a lighter workload.
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